Novel Investor

Compounding investing wisdom...

Closer to the Bottom Than the Top

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The irony of investing is that it typically works out best when markets look their worst. Currently, things don’t look good.

So with that in mind, let’s find out where we are in the market cycle. To paraphrase Howard Marks, if we know where we are in the cycle, we can better prepare for what comes next.

I thought I’d approach this from a different angle. Rather than guess what the Fed might do or where inflation and interest rates are going based on past history and how it might affect the market today, let’s look at “irrational” stock prices.

The best way to track irrationally priced stocks is with an old Ben Graham strategy that has largely gone out of style. He looked for companies trading below their liquidation value. In rational markets, that shouldn’t happen. Yet, it does.

Graham’s “Net-Net” strategy looks for companies with a market cap below its net current asset value. Current assets are typically the most liquid assets a company has: cash, money owed to the company (accounts receivable), and finished products not yet sold (inventory). And the net current asset value is found by subtracting total debt from current assets. Continue Reading…

Peter Lynch’s Rule for Dealing with Mistakes

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Investing mistakes are unavoidable. Everyone makes them. So it’s not a matter of if, but when. The question is what will do once you realized you’ve made a mistake?

Peter Lynch has the answer. In a 1980 appearance on Wall Street Week, Lynch highlights mistakes he’s had first-hand experience with like not knowing what you own or trying to catch a falling knife while ignoring fundamentals.

But Lynch has a rule for dealing with his mistakes. The instant he realizes he’s made a mistake, he gets out.

Unfortunately, many investors turn one mistake into many. They compound the problem.

Our first reaction toward losses is to make the money back. So the next mistake starts with wanting to get back to even. Which rarely goes as planned. Instead, we turn a small loss into a bigger loss. But that’s compounded by the opportunity cost of putting those dollars to work somewhere else. Continue Reading…

Wise Words from Peter Bernstein

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Peter Bernstein understood markets better than most. Decades of experience gave him an inside look at the complex interplay between investor behavior, risk, and uncertainty.

Bernstein knew that realized risk was a byproduct of investors’ behavior. Behavior that is often driven by our experiences or lack thereof.

Investors usually go wrong the moment they are certain of what comes next. Probabilities, not absolutes, are the best tools we have to make investment decisions. Yet, the riskiest moments in markets are when investors en masse expect a similarly certain future.

Bernstein knew that risk results from not knowing the future. Uncertainty rules but risk isn’t always a bad thing. Surprises happen both good and bad.

Risk is simply the outcome we don’t expect. The question to ask, according to Bernstein, is what if you’re wrong? Are you prepared for the consequences of that?

Survival is key. So risk is something to be protected against and diversification is the answer. But in so doing, diversification seizes surprising opportunities elsewhere.

Most important, Bernstein had a way with words. His talent to simplify complex ideas, like those above, into a short sentence or two was impressive. I thought I’d share a few.

Here’s Bernstein: Continue Reading…

Investing Lessons from the Great Depression

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Benjamin Roth kept a diary throughout the Great Depression. His diary was turned into the book The Great Depression: A Diary which offers a unique take on the time period from a financial perspective.

Roth realized early that he was witnessing a major financial crisis and wanted to learn from it. So he started journaling in 1931. He jotted down his thoughts on stories he heard from clients and events he observed. He tracked the stock market, local stock prices, and the economy both locally and nationally.

Three big things in Roth’s diary stood out.

First, one thing Roth repeated over and over was the lack of cash to buy bargain stocks. Nobody had money. The combination of a 90% market decline and widespread bank failures destroyed people’s savings.

Even the banks that didn’t fail basically froze their customer’s savings accounts. Limits were set on how much money a customer could withdraw in a day. In some cases, it was as low as 5% of the money in their account. Continue Reading…

Lessons from the 2022 Berkshire Meeting

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The Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting was this past weekend. Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger were back to their old ways.

Though, Buffett rambled a bit more than usual. Which probably cut the number of questions in half.

But the lessons were still there. The main takeaway from this year’s meeting is about avoiding the many ways investors can lose money. Let’s dive in. Continue Reading…

This Time Wasn’t Different

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The S&P 500 is down 12% year to date with over half of those losses coming in the past month. Yet, it’s holding up better than other areas of the market.

In fact, less than half of the S&P 500 stocks are down 20% or more from their 52-week high.

% of S&P 500 Stocks Trading 20% Below 52-Week-High

That’s tame compared to the rest of the market. About 33% of all stocks are down 50% or more from their 52-week high. For the record, less than 2% of S&P 500 stocks are down that low. Continue Reading…

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