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On Tuesday, I read a short book that dramatically changed investor thinking and fueled the 1920s market boom.
The running belief at the time was that bonds were better, safer investments than stocks. It was considered common knowledge until Edgar Lawerance Smith ran the numbers and published his results: Continue Reading…
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I ran across one of Howard Marks’ earliest Memos from before his Oaktree days. The topic was the value of forecasts, which he thoroughly explains where the value lies.
Accurate forecasts aren’t enough. You have to be accurate and your forecast must translate into above average returns. You have to be better off than doing nothing.
Just being right is hard enough. You also have to predict how the market will react, you have to act on it and get the timing right, and the result of all that needs to be worth it.
That’s a lot to ask for when predicting the future. Here’s Marks: Continue Reading…
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Charles Ellis has played a few roles in his life: an investment consultant on Wall Street, chairman of the Yale endowment, professor, and author of several books (17? and counting), including the classic Winning the Loser’s Game.
I’ve been reading a lot of Charley Ellis’ articles and interviews the past few days. He has a unique way of framing some of the basic tenets of investing success.
So I’ve pulled some highlights from what I read that help describe what Ellis believes investors need to do in order to “win” at investing.
Continue Reading…
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The latest from James Montier of GMO is a rundown on the current U.S. market valuation. Feel free to read that part, if you want (links are below).
I want to focus on his explanation of the factors that drive market returns and valuation. Because when you understand the factors, you can reach your own conclusions on where the market stands on valuation.
There are a lot of factors you can consider when doing this, but most are secondary. Besides, this isn’t rocket science, so let’s over complicate it. It’s best to keep it simple, which Montier’s does: Continue Reading…
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When the stock market’s gone up for several years it’s easy to get complacent and ignore the changing risk in your portfolio. Why sell or rebalance or adjust an allocation when equities are doing so well? Because investing has tradeoffs in risk and return. When you only have a plan for moves higher, you leave yourself unprotected from worse markets.
Risky events don’t happen on a timely basis. There are no giant neon signs that flash, “It’s time to get out!”
Instead, we hear pundits droning on about the “risks” from trough to peak. In other words, quantifying risk is hard: Continue Reading…
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I spent most of this week getting caught up on what I missed while on vacation. Non-existant best describes my online access on the trip, which was weird in a good way. On the rare chance I got a connection, I swear I had faster internet speeds in 1997.
Not having your phone blow up every few minutes with Twitter notifications or email updates is refreshing and relaxing. Thankfully, the world is so vast that we haven’t completely covered it with decent cell reception.
Something everyone must learn about the market (all news topics really) is the media makes all the noise sound important. Yet the real important stuff happens less often than they’d like you to believe. So you really can take some time off and never miss a beat. Continue Reading…