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  • Happy Hour: Wisdom from Ben Graham’s Earliest Writings

    August 10, 2018

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    Jon

    Ben Graham wrote Security Analysis in 1934. The second edition would be published six years later and is heralded as the bible, a beast of a book, on the art of financial analysis. But almost two decades before the first printing of Security Analysis, Graham laid the groundwork for his thought process while writing for The Magazine of Wall Street.

    I came across 33 of his articles written from 1917 to 1921 (he wrote for the magazine up till 1927, I believe) and have been reading them over the past two weeks. Combined, they offer some insight into his early investment philosophy, investigative mindset, and process of analyzing companies.

    The biggest takeaway is how inconsistent company reporting was back then. There were no rules. The SEC didn’t exist. Graham repeatedly complained about the lack of available information and even goes into detail about how he had to look up war tax records to reverse engineer company earnings.

    Another takeaway was his consistency in breaking down the best, worst, and most likely scenarios around a company. He also repeatedly focused on one thing after relating the “story” behind a stock – “Let us see to what extent this opinion is justified by the facts.” Beyond that, was a sense of the impact World War I, and its end, had on companies and the economy.

    Rather than diving into the details of each article, I thought I’d share some of the broader wisdom wrapped into his analysis. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Ben Graham’s Solution for the Great Depression

    August 3, 2018

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    Jon

    As mentioned in the last post, Ben Graham contributed to the 1933 Senate hearing Investigation of Economic Problems. His letter was titled “Sounder Money and Better Business.”

    I read it the other day to see what he had to say. It’s all economy stuff. So you won’t find wise words on investing, markets, or behavior. But if you have an interest in the Great Depression and a grasp the problems plaguing the U.S. at the time, you might find this interesting too.

    Here’s Graham’s take on the problem:

    …the plan attacks directly the central paradox of the depression, namely, poverty caused by superabundance, by transforming our surplus of commodities from a cause of national disaster into a source of national strength…

    General overproduction has been termed a theoretical impossibility, but it has proved also a practical and disastrous actuality. This has been due to the failure of effective purchasing power to keep pace with increasing production…

    Under present conditions, when production in general outstrips consumption, the whole economic mechanism is thrown out of gear. Deflation and depression are the only remedies. The adjustment is always painful, sometimes protracted, and in this instance almost fatal.

    Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: A Battle Plan to Buy

    July 27, 2018

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    Jon

    When markets are in free fall, and bargains abound, investors should be elated. The question is: do you buy as opportunities arise or hold out for a better (lower) price?

    This question was posed by Bruce Greenwald to a 2008 panel. Here was Seth Klarman’s answer:

    I think that you buy one security at time. And if somebody wants to sell you something at at sixty cents, that’s worth par, you buy it because you don’t know if tomorrow someone will sell it to you at 50 or if it will be at 70 or 90.

    That’s good advice in general because timing the bottom of anything is impossible without a lot of luck. It’s not even worth trying.

    However, I think it helps to remember how investors reacted in ’08. Very few were ecstatic. Almost everyone was nervous, afraid, paralyzed, panicked… How many investors claimed to be “waiting for a better opportunity” while sitting on cash? Continue Reading…


  • Bernard Baruch: The Stock Market is a Barometer

    July 25, 2018

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    Jon

    The Dow peaked intra-day at 386 on September 3, 1929. It closed that day at 381, an all-time closing high.

    That high was seared into memory because the Great Crash would happen soon after. For 25 years, the Dow would struggle to do much of anything.

    The unexpected happened on November 23, 1954. The Dow made a new high (a new intra-day high was hit the next day, the 24th).

    Then a newer high was made. And another one. And again…until the Dow closed out 1954 at 404, with a 44% return (without dividends).

    This was such a big deal that Congress opened a hearing on whether the stock market was too euphoric. They feared a repeat of 1929. So they called dozens of the best and brightest people to testify on the state of the market.

    Bernard Baruch was one of those people. Baruch was an early Wall Street legend who began his career in 1891, set up his own firm in 1903, bought a seat on the NYSE, and became a millionaire by age 30.

    Anyways, his testimony in The Stock Market Study offered a few highlights worth sharing, especially one equating the stock market with a barometer. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: On Process: Moneyball, Casinos, and You

    July 20, 2018

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    Jon

    In The Little Book of Behavioral Investing, James Montier relates a story by Paul DePodesta, of Moneyball fame, in the 16th chapter of the book.

    That chapter also happens to be a shortened version of the 2008 research piece that Seth Klarman refers to in the last post.

    DePodesta’s story weaves together casinos, baseball, and the importance of a good process. It begins with him playing blackjack in Vegas: Continue Reading…


  • Ben Graham’s 1920’s Hedging Strategy

    July 13, 2018

    ·

    Jon

    Out of curiosity, I went digging for more info on the strategy Ben Graham used in his early fund back in the 1920s.

    As was pointed out in the last post, he was buying undervalued stocks (the long-only portion) found through his own fundamental analysis, along with a separate hedging strategy, and some margin debt thrown in for good measure.

    There’s was nothing really funky going on beyond that. Graham was very much focused on risk — minimizing losses — but, unlike his post ’29 strategies, he clearly was trying to maximize gains too.

    In an article written in 1920, Graham outlined his hedging strategy. Continue Reading…


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