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  • On Paradigm Shifts

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  • On Experience Impacts Risk Taking Behavior

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  • On Distinguishing Signal from Noise

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  • On Keynes’s Beauty Contest: Expecting Other Investor’s Expectations

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  • On Forecasting Errors

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  • On Speed of Market Price Moves

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  • On Wisdom of the Crowds: The Market is Forward-Looking

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  • On Importance of Studying Market History

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  • On Importance of Dividend Yields

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  • On Diversification and Asset Correlation

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  • On Lessons from Past 100 Years (Up to 1974)

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  • On Risk as a Possible Range of Outcomes

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  • On Risk Management: Consequences of Being Wrong

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  • On Diversification: Owning What’s Uncomfortable

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  • On History of Risk

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  • On Risk Management: Chance of Being Wrong

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  • On A Study of Growth Stocks (1955-1972)

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  • On Paying High Price for High Growth Rate

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  • On Uncertainty: Feature of a Capitalist System

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  • On Quantitative Criteria for Growth Companies

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  • On Valuing Growth Companies: Price to Increase-in-Earnings Ratio

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  • On Defining True Growth Companies

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  • On History of Uncertainty in a Complex Economic System

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  • On Market Overreactions

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  • On Long-Term Investing: Volatility, Liquidity, Income

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  • On the “First Principle” of Time and Uncertainty

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  • On Warren Buffett and Eternal Time Horizon

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  • On Downside of Liquidity

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  • On Liquidity

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  • On Diversification

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  • On Liquidity

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  • On Liquidity and Risk

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  • On Risk and Duration

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  • On Risk Management and Consequences

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  • On 1987: The Common Thread in Bull Markets

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  • On Portfolio Strategies and Forecasting Guidelines

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  • On Assessing Client’s Risk Tolerance

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  • On Downside of Growth Investing

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  • On the Market Cycle

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  • On Mutual Fund Managers Beating the Market

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  • On Forecasting a Change in Multiples

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  • On Inflation and Risk-Taking

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  • On Long Run Returns and Economic Growth

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  • On Stocks Being Less Risky Than Bonds

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  • On Low Inflation

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  • On Defining Risk

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  • On Long Run Investing vs Market Timing

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  • On Learning from the “Long Run”

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  • On Measures of Risk

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  • On Risk and Time

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  • On Risk and Uncertainty

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  • On Uncertainty: Consequences Determine Decisions

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  • On Pascal’s Wager: 1980s Bonds vs. Stocks

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  • On Beta as Risk

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  • On Tactical Asset Allocation Models

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  • On Common Investor Mistake

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  • On Risk Management: Surviving Market Shocks

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  • On Considering the Consequences of Being Wrong

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  • On Investing Advice to Grandkids

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  • On Lesson From When Stock Yields Fell Below Bond Yields in 1958

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  • On Hedging Inflation Shocks

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  • On Being Wrong

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  • On Risk

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  • On Expecting Market Surprises

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  • On Advisers Promises to “Beat the Market”

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  • On Geopolitical Risk

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  • On Mistake of a Bearish Forecast in 1958

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  • On Lesson from Experiencing the Depression

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  • On Fear of Volatility

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  • On Finding Managers that Outperform

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  • On Tracking Error Risk

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  • On Stock Bond Correlation

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  • On Keeping Emotions in Check

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  • On Market Surprises and Hindsight Bias

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  • On Assessing Clients Risk Aversion and Setting Expectations

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  • On Psychological Aspect of Volatility

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  • On Boom/Bust Cycles

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  • On Humility

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  • On Dotcom Crash

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  • On Consequences of Biased Market Expectations

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  • On Good Stocks vs Good Companies

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  • On Consequences of Trying to Eliminate Volatility

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  • On Market Efficiency: Micro-Efficient, Macro-Inefficient

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  • On Hedging Against Extreme Outcomes

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  • On Defining Risk

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  • On Asset Correlation

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  • On Two Sides of Volatility

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  • On Small Caps vs Small Companies

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  • On Defining Risk

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  • On Not Knowing the Future

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  • On Outliers and Consequences

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  • On Variation, Not Averages, are the Norm

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  • On The Greatest Risk

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  • On Two Sides of Diversification

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  • On Learning from History

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  • On Being Prepared for Outliers

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  • On When Stock Yields Fell Below Bond Yields in 1958

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  • On Crowd Pyschology in Bubbles

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