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  • Wise Words on Surviving Bear Markets

    September 28, 2022

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    Jon

    Optimism is typically in short supply and shrinking fast during bear markets. But it shouldn’t be. If history is a guide, optimism should be rising.

    Because every stock market crash in the U.S. recovered. Every recession in this country turned into a growing economy. Every bear market ended. So there’s room for optimism.

    Of course, bear markets have a greater impact on your overall returns than any bull market will. Especially, if you abide by the philosophy that the lowest average cost wins.

    Bear markets allow opportunistic investors to average down. It’s future wealth creation at its finest.

    Every incremental decline in the stock market is another opportunity to buy at lower and lower prices which increases your chances of a higher return in the future.

    The dollar-cost averagers out there already take advantage of this, whether they know it or not. But if you’re sitting on cash, waiting for a signal to go all-in in this market, you won’t find it. Those things only show up in the rearview mirror long after the opportunity has come and gone. It’s best to pick your moment, commit to it, and average in. Continue Reading…


  • The Secret is Consistency

    September 23, 2022

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    Jon

    In 1981, Pension & Investment Age magazine published their regular report ranking investment performance for pension plans. Alone at the top was a tiny bank based out of Chillicothe, Missouri.

    Citizens Bank & Trust led the list of every bank- and insurance-managed pension fund for the 3-year performance mark. More importantly, it led the same list for the 10-year mark. How does a tiny bank in farm country Missouri beat out the biggest banks and insurance companies in the country for a decade?

    The answer is Edgerton Welch. Welch was the 72-year-old chief investment officer for the bank who had never heard of Ben Graham or modern portfolio theory. He admitted to not being smart enough to play the stock market. He even said he had no idea if it would go up or down. Instead, he had a copy of Value Line and a simple set of rules to guide him.

    Welch bought all the stocks that had Value Line’s highest ranking relative to other stocks, in industries ranked highly by Value Line, and also highly rated by Merrill Lynch and E.F. Hutton, the two brokerage firms he used. He held onto each stock until its Value Line ranking dropped. At which point he sold. Three rules tied to buying, one for selling. That’s it.

    Some may point to the simplicity of Welch’s strategy as the reason for its success. They’re partially right. Continue Reading…


  • The Cycles of Speculation by Thomas Gibson

    September 21, 2022

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    The Cycles of Speculation book coverBuy the Book: Print | eBook

    Thomas Gibson’s 1909 classic breaks down the market cycles of the 1800s, the speculative behavior behind them, and the typical errors speculators make each step of the way.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


  • Peter Lynch on Common Investor Mistakes

    September 16, 2022

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    Jon

    Peter Lynch was a legend who beat the market in a way few greats could do. From 1977 to 1990, he averaged a 29.7% return with the Magellan Fund. It was the best-performing fund of the 1980s.

    And yet, Lynch made mistakes. He jokingly admits to it often. He just did mistakes better than most investors too. Lucky for us, he had a knack for simplifying the difficulties of investing.

    His ability to cut to the heart of what it takes to make money, in the long run, is refreshing. And yet it’s still mostly ignored because the riches don’t come quick enough.

    As a guest on Wall Street Week, in 1990, he explained why patience is key. It was one of several common mistakes he covered during the segment. Be it market timing, predictions, not knowing what you own, or lack of effort, the mistakes are universal. Lynch’s take is a good reminder of the trouble we can get ourselves into at times. Continue Reading…


  • Successful Stock Speculation by J.J. Butler

    September 14, 2022

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    Successful Stock Speculation book coverBuy the Book: Print | eBook

    The 1922 investing classic offers an introduction to new investors and sits as a reminder that the basic investment principles have remained the same over the past century.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


  • Skill vs. Luck: Failing to Lose

    August 24, 2022

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    Jon

    Purposely losing money in the stock market seems like it should be an easy task. It turns out it takes some luck to lose money in the market. The same goes for making it.

    Michael Mauboussin defines pure skill-based activities as those where you can lose on purpose. Chess is pure skill. It takes years of learning and practice to become just good at chess. However, a master chess player can lose on purpose to anyone.

    Whereas the lottery is pure luck. It’s a random draw. You can pick a series of numbers and hope to lose but there’s always a chance you get lucky and win.

    Investing falls somewhere in between pure skill and pure luck because the amount of noise in the system makes it hard to lose (or win) on purpose in the short run.

    A good example of this is an interesting experiment run by John Rogers and his team several years ago: Continue Reading…


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