Novel Investor

Here’s what I’ve been reading for the past three months:

• Deep Simplicity: Bringing Order to Chaos and Complexity – John Gibbin explains how simple rules often describe the complexity and chaos found in math, physics, biology, and more. The book was not an easy read at times — portions of it went over my head and I’m still working through it.
• Successful Stock Speculation – The 1922 classic sits as an introduction to investing. The author, a stockbroker, presents some of the basic investing principles everyone should be aware of — especially today — before putting money to work in the market. (notes)
• The Cycles of Speculation – Thomas Gibson recognized how investors bounced from one speculative frenzy to another throughout the 1800s with the rise and fall of the market cycle. He briefly describes the early cycles and the many errors investors made along the way. (notes)
• Systemantics: How Systems Work and Especially How They Fail – John Gall humorously describes how complex systems work…or do not work. His long list of systems axioms highlight the many potential failure points in any complex system.
• The Splendid and the Vile – Erik Larson tells the story of Winston Churchill’s early days of WWII during the London blitz. I struggled to find a book that held my interest over the past few months. This book came recommended, so I just started it.

Continue Reading…

What do fortunetellers, psychics, and stock market forecasters have in common? They all claim to know what happens next…for a price.

But how good are they? Horrible! Yet some investors pay for it anyways. It’s a lesson investors can learn from history.

Alfred Cowles was one of the first to put market forecasters to the test almost a century ago. He conducted two studies, the first in 1932 and again in 1944.

The first study was based on the period from 1928 to 1932. Cowles first looked at how successful 20 insurance companies and 16 financial services were at picking stocks that would outperform the market. He next looked at the accuracy of 25 financial publications in predicting the movements of the markets. He also included the 26-year record of the editor of the Wall Street Journal, Peter William Hamilton.

The results were not surprising. Continue Reading…

Editorial cartoons present a snapshot of things that stood out as important in the past. Most are political in nature. Every so often, something major happened in the stock market that drew the attention of the country and cartoonists captured the moment in a funny way.

Bear markets and crashes were always a big draw and the 1900s produced many. A selection is covered by the cartoons below.

The first came in 1901. Cartoonists captured the speculation and panic caused by the attempted corner of the Northern Pacific Railway. The corner led to one of the largest short squeezes ever, forced short sellers to sell other holdings, and created a panic on Wall Street.

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Optimism is typically in short supply and shrinking fast during bear markets. But it shouldn’t be. If history is a guide, optimism should be rising.

Because every stock market crash in the U.S. recovered. Every recession in this country turned into a growing economy. Every bear market ended. So there’s room for optimism.

Of course, bear markets have a greater impact on your overall returns than any bull market will. Especially, if you abide by the philosophy that the lowest average cost wins.

Bear markets allow opportunistic investors to average down. It’s future wealth creation at its finest.

Every incremental decline in the stock market is another opportunity to buy at lower and lower prices which increases your chances of a higher return in the future.

The dollar-cost averagers out there already take advantage of this, whether they know it or not. But if you’re sitting on cash, waiting for a signal to go all-in in this market, you won’t find it. Those things only show up in the rearview mirror long after the opportunity has come and gone. It’s best to pick your moment, commit to it, and average in. Continue Reading…