I ran across one of Howard Marks’ earliest Memos from before his Oaktree days. The topic was the value of forecasts, which he thoroughly explains where the value lies.

Accurate forecasts aren’t enough. You have to be accurate and your forecast must translate into above average returns. You have to be better off than doing nothing.

Just being right is hard enough. You also have to predict how the market will react, you have to act on it and get the timing right, and the result of all that needs to be worth it.

That’s a lot to ask for when predicting the future. Here’s Marks: Continue Reading…

The latest from James Montier of GMO is a rundown on the current U.S. market valuation. Feel free to read that part, if you want (links are below).

I want to focus on his explanation of the factors that drive market returns and valuation. Because when you understand the factors, you can reach your own conclusions on where the market stands on valuation.

There are a lot of factors you can consider when doing this, but most are secondary. Besides, this isn’t rocket science, so let’s over complicate it. It’s best to keep it simple, which Montier’s does: Continue Reading…

I spent most of this week getting caught up on what I missed while on vacation. Non-existant best describes my online access on the trip, which was weird in a good way. On the rare chance I got a connection, I swear I had faster internet speeds in 1997.

Not having your phone blow up every few minutes with Twitter notifications or email updates is refreshing and relaxing. Thankfully, the world is so vast that we haven’t completely covered it with decent cell reception.

Something everyone must learn about the market (all news topics really) is the media makes all the noise sound important. Yet the real important stuff happens less often than they’d like you to believe. So you really can take some time off and never miss a beat. Continue Reading…