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  • Fred Schwed, Jr. Recalls the Great Crash

    October 30, 2019

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    Jon

    Fred Schwed had a front-row seat to the Great Crash. He worked at a trading desk of a brokerage house since he left college. A week earlier — on October 24 — was the first moment he realized something was off.

    October 24th started out like any normal day…until 11 am. The time is important because that was the deadline for margin calls.

    The day before, in the final hour of trading “someone had pulled the plug, and an avalanche of common stock had descended on the reluctant and retreating buyers.” That selling triggered margin calls.

    If you borrow money to buy stocks, you must meet certain minimum margin requirements. Falling below the minimum triggers a margin call and sticks you with two choices: add cash to your account or sell stocks.

    In the booming market of 1929, how many investors using margin had extra cash lying around? Practically none is my guess. Continue Reading…


  • Finding the Obvious

    October 25, 2019

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    Jon

    Oliver B. Adams grew up a poor kid who worked in a grocery store. He wasn’t a clever kid or imaginative. There was nothing special about him. Nothing, except for his obviousness. Yet, that simple trait led him to the top of the advertising business.

    Two of his obvious successes stand out. The first was creating a fancy ad campaign for a bond paper company. Adams rushed over to the paper mill to gather the facts. He got a crash course in how the paper was made: the ingredients (white rags), the type of water used, how it was dried, and even the inspection process.

    Then the obvious solution for the ad campaign came to him. Adams’s proposed highlighting all the ingredients: “every bond paper is made with carefully selected rags…pure filtered water… loft-dried…hand-inspected.”

    The CEO was dumbfounded. There’s was nothing original about it. Everyone already knew that about bond paper. But Adams quickly explained, “I never knew. The entire agency uses the stuff daily and none of us know. Who are you advertising to? Paper makers or paper users?” Continue Reading…


  • Revisiting the ’87 Crash

    October 23, 2019

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    Jon

    On October 19, 1987, the stock market crashed. It was the worst single-day decline, almost doubling the previous worst day in 1929.

    Unlike in 1929, something unique happened this time. Questionnaires were sent to individual and institutional investors to get inside their heads that day.

    Robert Shiller was behind it and compiled almost 1,000 responses into a report released a month later. Two things stood out.

    Most investors did nothing that day.

    In the less connected world of 1987, most individual investors heard about the crash by 2:00 pm Eastern Time.

    However, institutional investors knew something was up within an hour of the market open. Then they started talking to brokers and friends as anxiety kicked in. Yet, despite the fear, a remarkably small number of the investors surveyed actually bought or sold that day. Continue Reading…


  • Defying Reversion to the Mean

    October 18, 2019

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    Jon

    Mean reversion is a powerful force. It drives market cycles, stock prices, profit margins, earnings, growth rates…you name it.

    Michael Mauboussin wrote a piece about it in 2007 based on ROIC. ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) measures the profitability of a company. Positive is good, high is better, persistently high is great. Here’s the gist of his piece:

    Exhibit 5 shows one measure of persistence: the degree of quintile migration. This exhibit shows where companies starting in one quintile (the vertical axis) ended up after nine years (the horizontal axis). Most of the percentages in the exhibit are unremarkable, but two stand out. First, a full 41 percent of the companies that started in the top quintile were there nine years later, while 39 percent of the companies in the cellar-dweller quintile ended up there. Independent studies of this persistence reveal a similar pattern. So it appears there is persistence with some subset of the best and worst companies. Academic research confirms that some companies do show persistent results. Studies also show that companies rarely go from very high to very low performance or vice versa.
    Continue Reading…


  • Highlights from Howard Marks’s Mastering the Market Cycle

    October 16, 2019

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    Jon

    Howard Marks’s latest book, Mastering the Market Cycle, is a compendium on the different cycles investors contend with. The book stands as a lesson on observation over prediction. It’s a solid addition to his classic The Most Important Thing.

    Since I just started on my notes on the book, I thought I’d leave market cycles for another day. Instead, I want to share some highlights from the book.

    I avoided his more popular idioms, as well as quotes from his memos that he always includes in his books, and focused on the secondary lessons that stood out.

    Let’s dive in: Continue Reading…


  • Early Principles of “Investment Management”

    October 9, 2019

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    Jon

    Edgar Lawrence Smith concludes his classic book with the importance of “Investment Management.” I don’t know how original this concept was in 1924, but investment management is exactly like it sounds. Anyone who’s read a few investing books should recognize the principles Smith lays out since it fits the basic concepts of investment planning today.

    Obviously, the big difference between then and now is that most investors are analyzing funds or strategies instead of individual stocks and bonds. And analyzing might be an exaggeration.

    Smith’s point falls under the Peter Lynch maxim of “Know what you own” and keep a watchful eye over it.

    But first you need a sound plan. He lays out the case for management as an ongoing effort to balance a portfolio between stocks and bonds based on whatever the current environment warrants.

    Then he expands into having a plan for the long term (including the next generation), the importance of diversification, and understanding the limits of what’s possible.

    Here’s how Smith broke it down: Continue Reading…


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