Quote for the Week
One of the first lessons I heard about pendulums and the swing of investor behavior regarded something I was taught in the early 1970s: the three stages of a bull market. These succinctly capture the essence of investor psychology.
The first stage comes when a few people begin to realize that there will be improvement. The second stage occurs when most people realize that improvement is already taking place. The third stage comes when everyone thinks that things will be getting better forever. Clearly, the first is early; the last is laughably late. One of my favorite adages – perhaps my favorite of all – is that what the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end. So it’s the buyer in the third stage – who buys when optimism is incorporated, under the assumption that things will always get better – who pays the price. — Howard Marks (source)
From the Archives
Last Call
- What’s The Surest Route to Investing Excellence? – J. Ptak
- Do Stocks Always Outperform Bonds? – Verdad
- Risk Seeking When Fearful – Klement on Investing
- For the Love of Losing – Granta
- Don’t Be a Doomer – Noahpinion
- Technology Over the Long Run – Our World in Data
- Cliff Asness: The King of Quants (podcast) – Money Talks
- What the Poet, Playboy, and Prophet of Bubbles Can Still Teach Us – T. Harford
- When Icons Fall: FTX, Carnegie, And Samuel Insull – Investor Amnesia
- Would You Prefer a Four-Day Working Week? – U of Cambridge
