A lot of people claim to be contrarian, but few actually are. Either, they think they’re unique in having an idea, even though everyone shares it. Or they claim it but never act.

Take Valeant Pharmaceuticals. First, imagine a stock rising to lofty heights – about $262 – from a 2009 low around $11. Had you bought it at any point before June 2015, you would have made money.

Then August came with bad news and the hits just kept on coming. The stock collapsed 87% from its highs to $35. Continue Reading…

Volatility gets way to much attention. It’s almost as if investors are codependent on the short-term twitches in the market. They need it, just know the market is working for them. And good ole Mr. Market loves the attention.

Jason Zweig summed this up nicely in a short article: Volatility: In the Eye of the Beholder. In it, he included this image showing volatility over three different periods. Continue Reading…

Morgan Housel wrote a great piece on why it’s so hard to predict outcomes. Really, it’s about feelings.

How investors feel about stocks five years from now will have a big impact on performance between now and then. If you could semi-accurately predict broader shifts in market mood, you’d do fairly well for yourself. Except, predicting how people will feel in the future is just as hard as predicting everything else about the future. Continue Reading…