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  • Ben Graham on Investing, Speculating, and Thinking in Probabilities

    June 28, 2017

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    Jon

    Ben Graham believed in separating investing from speculation. But he also separated speculation from intelligent speculation because some amount of speculation always exists in prices. The reason: the future is uncertain.

    Because the future is uncertain, the market is the collective best guess on what will happen next. But Graham knew that Mr. Market sometimes guesses wrong. Therein lies the opportunity for investors willing to focus on facts in a way that puts the odds in their favor.

    I’ve highlighted pieces of a Ben Graham lecture the past couple weeks. In his last lesson, Graham offers a framework for thinking about investing, intelligent speculation, diversification, and probabilities that are worth reading. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Actively Passive EM Funds

    June 23, 2017

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    Jon

    If you knew what goes on behind the scenes of an index you’d understand why the “passive” label misrepresents index funds. Most indexes are actively managed, meaning the index fund counterpart is too.

    I’ve highlighted this in the past with the S&P 500 and MSCI’s indexes. S&P adds and removes stocks from the index every year. So the S&P 500 today looks different than it did ten years ago. It’ll look different 10 years from now.

    MSCI reviews and reclassifies countries often (the reviews are an annual event). So countries get moved from frontier to emerging market or emerging market to developed market indexes or vice versa (stocks are added to and removed from each index as well).
    Continue Reading…


  • Ben Graham on Buying Low and the Mistake of Buying High

    June 21, 2017

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    Jon

    The market is a giant mass of people all trying to guess what’s going to happen next. Because of that investors set an expectation for the future of a company or the market based on past results and how they feel that day.

    There’s just one slight problem. Even if you guess the expectations right, there’s no guarantee the market will agree with you. You have to guess the price right too. Ben Graham explained that problem in the lectures I referenced last week.

    That’s why patience and discipline are so important in investing. But once you understand market psychology and its tendency to fluctuate, you can start to use that to your advantage. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Easy Game

    June 16, 2017

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    Jon

    The latest from Michael Mauboussin at Credit Suisse was released this week. The report digs into the important question of how the rise of index funds are impacting the market.

    About 39% of AUM (and growing) currently sits in index funds and ETFs. But there is a point where that becomes a problem. Everyone can’t index because then nobody is buying based on fundamentals. So at what level does the balance between active and passive investing lead to an unhealthy market?

    Well, Mauboussin and crew, think they have a way to measure it. Or, at least, measure the opportunity in the market, assuming you find an active manager with the skillset to take advantage of it. Continue Reading…


  • Ben Graham on Market Cycles and Second-Level Thinking

    June 14, 2017

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    Jon

    Graham on Market CyclesI finished reading a series of Graham lectures from a course he taught in 1946. The full transcripts are published online and linked below. The course focuses on potential problems in security analysis following World War II (Graham’s worry is the extrapolation of WWII market performance into the future).

    Graham starts the course off by explaining the two important things you should know about the market. He calls the first one continuity: Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Behavior Cycle

    June 9, 2017

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    Jon

    Howard Marks delivers a very consistent message on the importance of understanding where we are in the cycle. He does so because risk changes as we move through the cycle.

    So if you’re basing your allocation decisions on risk (you’re controlling for risk, not returns), this is a most important thing to know. In the Investor Series, I linked to last week, Marks came back to explain why a few times: Continue Reading…


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