I’ve updated the asset class, sector, international, and emerging markets quilts through the first quarter of 2026. Find links to each version below:
You can also download copies here or grab the images below. I’ll have a deeper dive into the numbers next week.
Every so often, something happens that nobody expected, including markets. It was not priced in. It wasn’t even considered. But it forces markets to reassess what the majority believed would happen over the next 12 months or so.
That’s 2026 in nutshell so far. The market impact of the war in Iran and $100 oil prices has been more volatile markets yet somewhat subdued returns so far.
Broadly, the range in asset class returns on the year is small. REITs with a 4% total return at the high end. Large caps (S&P 500) at -4% at the low end.
Probably more interesting is the lack of range between everything else. US small caps, international, emerging market, short-, mid-, and long-term treasuries, and high yield bonds all fall between a 1% to -1% total return year to date.
So not much has happened this year for the major asset classes despite the geopolitical risk. Still, the last three months are a good example why investors should plan for the unexpected in advance.
Uncertainty is a feature in markets. Not knowing what happens next in markets over the course of months or years is why we don’t predict. We diversify. We plan ahead.
