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  • What Dollar Cost Averaging Did In The Lost Decade

    May 13, 2015

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    Jon

    Bear MarketsThe U.S. stock market went nowhere for 12 years. Two bear markets that saw the S&P 500 fall by almost 50% – twice – produced this Lost Decade, where the market produced no return. Or did it?

    While the Lost Decade makes for great headlines it ignores several realities from an investor’s perspective.

    First, the S&P 500 was one of many asset classes you could have owned during the period. This chart shows how a diversified portfolio performed against U.S. stocks and other asset classes.

    Second, if capital gains is the only return you’re focused on, you’re ignoring total return. Dividends were paid quarterly by S&P 500 index funds during the entire period. I used SPY, an S&P 500 ETF, to show this below. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Annual BRK Circus

    May 8, 2015

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    Jon

    Last weekend was the Berkshire Hathaway circus annual meeting. I spent most of that time reading through the notes and watching the media interviews from different sites (links are below). I won’t highlight anything specific, you can dig into it if you want. I will make two observations – on the enormity of Berkshire and learning from Buffett.

    First, Berkshire is huge. It’s a ridiculous number of companies now (I don’t have the exact number, Google says more than 80?). The companies stretch into so many areas of the economy that Buffett knows how well the economy is doing, and can see major business/industry changes, before the Fed and anyone else. The information he gets from daily business updates gives him a huge advantage when buying new companies/stocks. Continue Reading…


  • Focus On What You Can Control

    May 6, 2015

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    Jon

    A big mistake every investor makes is trying to control things that are uncontrollable. They try to figure out where the market is going. They try to predict the economy. They try to find the best basket of funds that gives the best returns possible. They try to find the perfect stock.

    When you spend all your time trying to optimize for the perfect outcome, and the results you want don’t materialize, you’re back at square one. Then you start the process all over. Investing isn’t about perfection because every year offers up a new best way to invest. There’s one problem. You don’t find out until after the year ends. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Local Resource…Online

    May 1, 2015

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    Jon

    Back at the beginning of the year I finally took the time to get a library card. As a Chicago resident, it was easier than I expected. I did it all online, at home, in about five minutes. Half of that time was checking out how the online service worked. Since then, I’ve spent a few random hours just digging through the library.

    The online library gives me access to a huge resource that I previously wrote off. That means all the books, magazines, journals, and newspapers I’d get at the library, but also at home too, plus back issues. There’s also access to premium subscriptions that I wouldn’t normally pay for or don’t have to pay for anymore like Morningstar, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Times. Continue Reading…


  • Running Fire Drills On Your Portfolio

    April 29, 2015

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    Jon

    Best PlanRemember back to when you were in school. Mixed within the classes, lunch, and recess were regularly scheduled safety drills. There were fire drills, tornado drills, and for the Cold War kids, nuclear bomb drills (duck and cover).

    I faintly remember the fire drills in grade school. The teachers emphasized walking in a calm, quiet, and orderly fashion, single file out of the classroom, down the stairs, and out the door. Each class had its own predetermined path that finished somewhere outside at a reasonably safe distance from the school. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Worst Real Estate Investment

    April 24, 2015

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    Jon

    The idea of being a landlord doesn’t appeal to me. That’s not to say real estate can’t be a good investment. It can. Like every other type of investing, it takes time to learn which investments work – be it a multi-unit building, condos, commercial property, land, or stocks, bonds, funds, etc. – so you actually make a decent profit over time.

    I bring this up because a recent Gallop poll came out showing real estate, of all things, is seen as the best long term investment…again. I guess it’s easier to get over a housing market crash than a stock market crash. Continue Reading…


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