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  • Inverting the Investment Process

    February 28, 2020

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    Jon

    Charlie Munger held court at the DJCO annual meeting a few weeks ago. One issue with Munger’s (and Buffett’s) popularity is the Q&A session at these meetings get repetitive. Anyone watching past sessions or reading through old transcripts will hear the same questions and answers annually.

    Now, every so often, Munger changes up the answers.

    This year, he expanded on a trick he calls the inversion process. It’s the idea of flipping a problem (or question) on its head. It has wide uses, including in investing: Continue Reading…


  • Lessons from the 2019 Berkshire Letter

    February 26, 2020

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    Jon

    Warren Buffett began his 2019 Shareholder Letter with a review of a short but groundbreaking book. The findings would change what the author, and everyone along with him, believed ever since.

    Edgar Lawrence Smith set out to prove a theory that bonds were better investments than stocks during periods of deflation, while stocks were better than bonds during inflation.

    Instead, he found that stocks were better investments all around. His work, Common Stocks as Long Term Investments would be published in 1924. The ideas didn’t catch on until John Maynard Keynes popularized the book with a written review in May of 1925.

    Smith’s findings completely upended the widespread view that bonds were “safe” and stocks were speculative. And the book would go on to play a role in the ensuing market bubble that burst in 1929. Continue Reading…


  • Wise Words from Philip Carret

    January 31, 2020

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    Jon

    Philip Carret has one of the longest successful track records on Wall Street. But before his Wall Street career, he was a pilot in WWI, a Harvard graduate, and finally a reporter for Barron’s.

    A series of articles for Barron’s led to his first book, The Art of Speculation. In it, he describes his concept of value investing.

    In 1928, Carret founded the Pioneer Fund, one of the first mutual funds in the US. The fund got off to a horrible start thanks to the ’29 crash and the Great Depression. But they both survived. And despite the early losses, the fund performed phenomenally over the 55 years he ran it.

    I think it’s safe to say Carret practiced the art of patient investing longer than anyone. He was still managing money when he died in 1998 at the age of 101. Thankfully he shared some of his (almost) eight decades of investing experience over the years.

    Here’s Carret: Continue Reading…


  • Phil Fisher: Scuttlebutt and Assessing Management

    January 30, 2020

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    Jon

    Most of the great investors are divided over the need for qualitative analysis. The two biggest areas are measuring management and moats.

    Both sides make solid arguments because you’re trying to assess something that can’t be easily measured. That’s why qualitative analysis is more art than science. Put simply, some people got it, some people don’t (like me).

    Those who are gifted in the art — like Buffett, Fisher, and Lynch — have an innate ability that normal humans don’t have…and their returns show it.

    However, the likes of Graham and Schloss did quite well despite taking the other side of that argument. They didn’t think they could successfully do it, so they avoided talking to management like the plague.

    Of course, both sides are correct…investors do better when they stick with what they’re (honestly) good at and avoid the rest.

    That said, Phil Fisher mastered qualitative analysis. He wanted a company with great management at a reasonable price. He felt management was the most important ingredient to separate a business from its rivals. Continue Reading…


  • Why a Bull Market Ends

    January 22, 2020

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    Jon

    When? That’s what everyone wants to know. The answers to why a bull market ends come pouring in the second the when is confirmed.

    But the explanations why are usually complex. They certainly won’t help anyone predict the next turn. They’re often secondary, or scapegoats, to what really happened.

    The 1982-87 bull market is a good example. The five year period saw steady gains in most quarters: only 5 out of 20 quarters were negative, with no declines of as much as 10%. And 1987 started off hot, up 21% in the first three months, before peaking in August.

    The bull market that culminated in Black Monday ended because…Computers! Computerized trading, that is. That one gets piled on all the time. Portfolio insurance and leverage also got blamed. And they sound good too. Continue Reading…


  • Quantitative Momentum by Wesley Gray & Jack Vogel

    January 15, 2020

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    Quantitative Momentum book coverBuy the Book: Print | eBook

    Gray and Vogel introduce the theory behind momentum, what drives the effect, why it should persist, and how to build an improved quantitative momentum strategy that exploits the sustainable edge in investor misbehavior.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


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