Once upon a time, bonds were considered the best investments in all the land. Stocks were speculative and risky. Bonds were “safe.”
As luck would have it, Edgar Lawrence set out to test a theory and happened upon an interesting result. Lawrence originally thought that stocks did better during periods of inflation, bonds during periods of deflation.
It turned out stocks did better under both periods because retained earnings, reinvested back into a business, would grow more earnings and the business would appreciate in value. It naturally created a compounding effect that showed up in the stock price over time.
Of course, this is common knowledge today but it was a new idea at the time. Lawrence published his results in a book titled Common Stocks as Long Term Investments, with little fanfare, at first.
But John Maynard Keynes helped popularize it with a review written in May of 1925. The book would go on to be, at least partially, blamed for the stock bubble and burst of 1929 (what started as a sound premise devolved to chasing price action). Here are the highlights of Keynes’s review: Continue Reading…

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