Stocks can be crushed in bear markets with no guarantee of recovery. But markets, more broadly, tend to move in cycles. The worst can become first and vice versa.

The S&P 500 is the perfect example of this cyclicality where last year’s worst performers are this year’s darlings. The sector returns, specifically, show that the worst-performing sectors last year — Info Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communications — are the three best performers year to date.

With cycles, it’s relatively simple to guess what might qualify for some reversion to the mean. Just look to the most extreme market performers. Except, it’s difficult to guess when it happens.

Hindsight, of course, makes it easy to explain why two of those three sectors performed so well thanks to the bump from AI. Yet, how many predicted they would have such a phenomenal start to the year?

Market history is filled with examples of worst-performing asset classes over one or more years that find their way to the top of the list once (almost) everyone least expects it. Put simply, bear markets in asset classes and sectors turn into bull markets eventually.

The lesson is not about timing but rather staying put. Being invested throughout the cycle brings the upside of surprising bounces, without the need to know when to get back in. Continue Reading…

Note: No posts next week due to the U.S. holiday.

Quote for the Week

It is easy, of course, to pick out good companies, companies that are better than other companies. But that is not the same thing as picking out good stocks to buy at their current prices. The reason should be obvious. The good companies sell at high prices in relation to what they show, and the companies that are not so good sell at low prices in relation to what they show. And which one is the better one to buy cannot be decided in any simple, offhand manner such as saying it is always better to buy your jewelry at Tiffany’s than at Macy’s. That may or may not be true. — Benjamin Graham (source)

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As bull market enthusiasm wanes, stocks correct and overcorrect. The excess in stock prices burns off. Large-caps become mid-caps, mid-caps become small-caps, and valuations change.  That change in valuation creates opportunities.

As you’ll see below, not all stocks in an index trade at the average valuation. But first, let’s start with how things have changed in the last 6 to 12 months.

Market Volatility Cooling

Market volatility is a decent substitute for investor fear or reluctance to own stocks since the biggest spikes appear near the largest market declines. Continue Reading…

Quote for the Week

We do pay attention to what’s going on; we read extensively; we listen to what our friends in the business say, what the sell side people say, what people on television say. All of that is input into the way we think about things. But, our judgment is that the market is pretty good about incorporating the present state of affairs into stock prices or bond prices. And so, as I’m fond of telling the analysts, if it’s in the newspapers, it’s in the price. So you really need to understand what isn’t in the price, what isn’t being discounted, what events can happen that will lead the market to think differently about things. — Bill Miller (source)

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Quote for the Week

While the classic growth companies may continue to generate new sources of earning power, the question is: Can they do this rapidly enough to justify the valuation placed on their current earning power?

One can repeat the question just asked: Is a growth rate triple the potential growth of the economy sustainable indefinitely? If a company can double its earnings over the next 6 years but then needs 10 years before its earnings double again—and perhaps 15 years the next time—then its present P/E ratio will fade with the passage of time. In other words, the price will rise more slowly than the earnings.

And at every moment the investor runs the risk that a change in management, a spry competitor, a shift in customer preferences, or a fundamental economic or social change may slow earning power a lot faster than anticipated. Admittedly, pleasant surprises may come along too, but 40 times earnings already anticipates those. — Peter Bernstein (source)

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