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Market timing is fraught with problems. Specifically, it doesn’t work.
Ben Graham addressed the risk of adding a timing component to your strategy in Security Analysis. He points out two important problems that lead to poor timing in a bull market.
One is a problem that comes with selling. The other is failing to know when not to buy.
Here’s what he had to say: Continue Reading…
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Bogle’s Enough draws from a lifetime of wisdom to reflect on the excesses of a financial system that led to the 2008 crisis and reminds readers of the benefits of a less greedy, long-term, client-first system (society) where success in life is defined by more than just money.
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The behavioral side of investing gets a lot of attention while the personal finance side often gets less than it deserves. That’s because how defensive you are with your finances helps determine how aggressive you can be with your portfolio. Put simply, it’s easier to roll with the market’s punches when everything outside your portfolio is in financially sound shape.
Peter Bernstein dwells on the impact of being wrong on investments because the consequences can go beyond losses. The nature of investing guarantees everyone will be wrong sometimes. That means unexpected gains in some cases (being wrong isn’t all bad) and losses in others.
How quickly you can recover from losses will have a big impact on your long-term wealth. There’s an obvious psychological hurdle to recovering from losses but the state of your finances impacts your ability to recover too. Bernstein calls it “staying power.” Continue Reading…
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Deep Value explains, through numerous case studies and backed by data, why the counterintuitive approach of a traditional (deep) value strategy uncovers the most promising investment opportunities with limited risk.
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Mistakes are the bane of investor performance. Naturally, the idea that avoiding errors improves performance is simple enough but our behavior often gets in the way.
There’s a reason why some of the best investors ever are often the most humble. Pride is an obstacle investors need to overcome before improvement happens.
The fact is humans are fallible. Mistakes are inevitable. The great ones accept it, are critical of their own when needed, learn what they can, and move forward.
With pride out the way, finding the recurring mistakes should be easier, right? But again, another obstacle called time gets in the way. Rarely is the same mistake made one decision after another until it’s recognized and removed. And investment decisions are rarely made in rapid succession either.
There’s the old adage that bull and bear markets are just far enough apart that investors forget how the last one ended. Well, similar mistakes have a distance between them too. It makes it difficult to remember the last time the mistake was made. Which can lead to repetition. Continue Reading…
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1937 was the first major market crash since the big one in 1929. The U.S. stock market peaked in March 1937 then sank about 50% over the next year. I’m sure the thought of a repeat of 1929 was in the back of a few investor’s minds at the time.
In fact, John Maynard Keynes may have been dealing with someone who was fighting that last war. Keynes served on the board of National Mutual. He believed the insurance company should hold a higher weighting in stocks than what was typical of the time. Though, not all board members agreed.
The disagreement grew louder as the U.S. market sank from 1937 to 1938 and dragged National Mutual’s portfolio down with it. By March of 1938, F. N. Curzon, the acting chairman in Keynes’s absence, had enough. He pushed to liquate some stock holdings. Then he fired off a letter criticizing Keynes’s investment policy over the previous few months.
Keynes’s reply came a few days later: Continue Reading…
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