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  • The Benefit of a Bear Market in Everything

    December 2, 2022

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    Jon

    A bear market in everything best describes 2022. Stocks, bonds, real estate, used cars, crypto, sentiment, fraudsters…everything is going down this year.

    Of the major market indexes, the Dow and S&P 500 each fell more than 20% before recovering to a 5% loss and 14% loss respectively. The Nasdaq faired worse, dropping more than 30% before recovering to its current 26% loss year to date.

    chart of S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq performance YTD

    The losses should be no surprise by now. The carnage in Nasdaq stocks, especially, has been covered extensively. Excessive hope and a great story can do wonders for stock prices but eventually, companies need to deliver. Many have not. Continue Reading…


  • Memos from the Chairman by Alan Greenberg

    November 30, 2022

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    "Memos from the Chairman" book coverBuy the Book: Print | eBook

    Alan “Ace” Greenberg became CEO of Bear Stearns in 1978. His witty, humorous memos, covering two decades, set the tone, maintained morale, and repeated his simple business philosophy backed by common sense.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


  • Wise Words from David Swensen

    November 18, 2022

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    Jon

    David Swensen managed Yale’s endowment for 35 years and transformed how institutions managed money. His Yale model took a simple idea and applied an unconventional approach to great success.

    Swensen’s simple idea was that time horizon plays an important role in determining asset allocation. The time horizon for college endowments is basically endless. It allowed Swensen to tilt the portfolio to an equity-oriented allocation to take advantage of that extreme long-term view.

    While a typical allocation holds a mix of traditional asset classes like U.S. and foreign stocks and bonds, Swensen shied away from that. Instead, his unconventional approach leaned heavily on what is now called alternative investments.

    For example, in 2008, only 30% of Yale’s endowment was invested in traditional asset classes. 70% was in real assets, hedge funds, absolute return strategies, private equity, and venture capital. That asset mix allowed him to focus more on the least efficient markets. His goal was equity-like returns over long periods using uncorrelated assets. And it worked!

    Swensen knew that every investor has three tools at their disposal to generate returns: asset allocation, market timing, and security selection. Research shows that market timing doesn’t work. In fact, it’s a net negative. It generates higher turnover, higher fees, and fails to do what’s intended. Returns tend to be worse when market timing is involved. Continue Reading…


  • The Ten Commandments for Business Failure by Donald Keough

    November 16, 2022

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    Ten Commandments of Business Failure book coverBuy the Book: Print | eBook

    There is no secret formula for business success. Donald Keough inverts the question “How to succeed in business?” He looks back on numerous mistakes in his sixty-year career and identifies common factors that led to business failure so you avoid the same fate.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


  • The Memoirs of Walter J. Schloss by Walter Schloss

    November 9, 2022

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    The Memoirs of Walter J. Schloss book coverBuy the Book: Print

    Walter Schloss shares stories and lessons from his life growing up in New York, getting his first job on Wall Street, enlisting in WWII, returning to work for Ben Graham, and successfully running his own partnership for 47 years.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


  • Wise Words from Peter Lynch

    November 4, 2022

    ·

    Jon

    Anyone who got the investing itch in the ’80s or ’90s followed Peter Lynch at some point. He was the last star mutual fund manager — who left the game early and for the right reasons. Lynch played at a higher level than everyone else.

    One of the best examples of this, that I’ve come across, was in the 1988 Baron’s Roundtable discussion. Ten fund managers gathered in the same room to start the year. You might recognize a few — Mario Gabelli, Paul Tudor Jones, John Neff, Michael Price, Jim Rogers, and, of course, Peter Lynch.

    It’s three months after the ’87 crash. They’re jittery. They argue about what’s next for the economy, oil prices, interest rates, inflation, trade deficit, and the stock market. Six hours of “what if there’s a recession or another crash?” Basically, the crap you hear on CNBC every day.

    And then there’s Lynch — I picture him sitting quietly, smirking. Finally, he interrupts:

    There’s always something to worry about. But it’s garbage to worry about these things… You have to look at corporate profits, and see what’s going on in the companies. It’s total garbage to worry about the things that’s going to drive us to a 300 Dow. It’ll be something you couldn’t imagine if you picked the brightest or dumbest people in the world and assembled them for hours.

    Lynch took a shot at the Roundtable itself and made his point. There’s always something to worry about in investing. But it’s a waste of time and energy because we won’t predict it correctly. Continue Reading…


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