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  • Longer Term Return Data Sources

    June 7, 2019

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    Jon

    It’s never been easier for the average investor to find long term return data. The asset class tables I started several years ago, never would have been possible without it.

    The benefit is the ability to turn a pile of numbers into a visually appealing tool — something people can learn from and, hopefully, make more informed investment decisions.

    All the index data I use in the tables can be found online in some form. To get the returns still requires a little math. Since I’m doing the work for the tables anyways, I thought I’d publish it in case others might it useful.

    Anyone who’s interested can find it on the new Historical Returns page. You can click the download buttons to grab a copy in CSV or Excel formats. Continue Reading…


  • Ten Hell’s of the Speculator

    June 5, 2019

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    Jon

    Severn years before Edwin Lefevre began a series of articles that would become Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, he warned of the perils in speculation. He likened it to gambling on an unbeatable game.

    His reason was no different than what’s been repeated millions of times since. Speculators are more likely to beat themselves before they ever beat the market.

    What makes the game of stock speculation the most dangerous of all is the variety of pleasing disguises it is able to assume. Being born of greed, it feeds on greed, and thereby waxes greater. If that were all it did, of if it did this openly, it would not be so dangerous; but besides the additional lure of adventure there is the irresistible appeal to vanity, the challenge to pit your wits against other wits, and even against Nature and the vagaries of the weather and the weaknesses of men. It most often masquerades as a legitimate business operation, subject to and governed by the ordinary rules of ordinary business.

    Greed, vanity, and ignorance make for a bad combination for speculators. It leads to all the familiar mistakes — chasing “easy money,” over trading, unable to quit while ahead — that inevitably lead to their downfall.

    Lefevre warned readers about all of this in 1915, then relayed the 10 Hells: Continue Reading…


  • J.F. Hume: The Seedier Side of the Street

    May 31, 2019

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    Jon

    Nobody paints a more accurate picture of old-time Wall Street than John Ferguson Hume. In the second, and final chapter, of The Art of Investing, Hume doesn’t hold back. He calls Wall Street by many names — a madhouse, a cuttlefish, a devilfish, a bloodsucker — while asking two questions:

    Much graver questions grow out of its existence. Is it a harmless institution? Is it a public blessing? Is it a public curse?

    The answers have always varied, depending on who you ask.

    The market does have its uses but money always attracts nefarious types. Wall Street is infamous for it. And it will never entirely go away.

    Scam artists and schemers will always be around in some form, trying to separate you from your money. That’s just the nature of things.

    Then there’s the market itself. People are naturally drawn to it. The nature of people is to “invest” money in ways that run counter to success.

    Hume attempts to inject some Street smarts, some timeless wisdom, and some history while painting a colorful picture of the seedier, speculative side of the Street. Continue Reading…


  • Ben Graham: How External Factors Affect Decisions

    May 24, 2019

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    Jon

    Ben Graham believed the great 1920s bull market would end disastrously, yet kept investing as though it wouldn’t happen.

    You might think that’s worthy of praise, somehow. He stuck to his guns and never strayed from his strategy.

    Well, you’d be wrong. One of the brightest minds on Wall Street strayed from his strategy and couldn’t follow his gut.

    Graham explained everything, even questioning his reasons, in his memoirs: Continue Reading…


  • The Lessons of History by Will & Ariel Durant

    May 22, 2019

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    The lesson of history book coverBuy the Book: Print | eBook

    Will and Ariel Durant wrote the Lessons of History as a survey of human experience throughout history and the role human nature played in evolving and shaping civilization.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


  • Peter Lynch: The ’87 Crash and Recession Worries

    May 10, 2019

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    Jon

    In rummaging around my stuff on Peter Lynch, I found the 1988 Barron’s Roundtable. The Roundtable, for those who don’t know, is a chance for fund companies to show off their star manager’s, talk their book, get some free press out it, and Barron’s can feed the demand for stock tips.

    Tips aside, it’s Peter Lynch and the ’88 edition is interesting for a few reasons:

    1. Lynch mentioned roughly 110 stocks. Stock tips are overrated, but chasing after Lynch’s tips seems insane. Maybe his objective was to offer so many “tips,” it was easier to just buy the fund?
    2. Lynch says he owned “at least 1,500” stocks in the Magellan fund. The fund was so huge, he was basically limited to playing industry bets. And if memory serves, he beat the market in ’88 (along with his entire career).
    3. The fund managers — the Pros! — were still freaked out about the October ’87 Crash going into 1988 and worried about a recession.
    4. However, Peter Lynch was not.

    Or Lynch didn’t show it. Continue Reading…


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