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  • Book Review: The Laws of Wealth

    March 15, 2017

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    Jon

    The Laws of WealthInvesting is full of potential obstacles. Most investors think that if they could just figure out what happens next, they can easily avoid the future obstacles in their path. But few investors ever realize that the biggest obstacle is themselves.

    The Laws of Wealth: Psychology and the Secret to Investing Success shows investors how to get out of their own way. Through studies, stories, and humor, Dr. Daniel Crosby lays out what every investor faces at some point – sometimes often – in their investing life. Their behavior compounds mistakes rather than their money.

    The book is broken into two parts. The first part of the book is dedicated to ten rules that help you manage your behavioral risk. You control what matters, trouble is opportunity, excess is never permanent, and risk is not a squiggly line are a few of the rules.

    Why is it important to understand these risks? Because anything that works against you can be exploited by other investors. As Dr. Crosby explains, your disadvantage, with the right set of rules, can become an advantage. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Animal Spirits

    March 10, 2017

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    Jon

    The term “animal spirits” got tossed around of late to describe the market’s performance to start the year.

    John Maynard Keynes coined the term actually. Here he is:

    Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits — of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.

    The argument is that the current “animal spirits” is due to the election. Maybe. Or people just got tired of being pessimistic. Continue Reading…


  • John Maynard Keynes on Human Nature and Markets

    March 8, 2017

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    Jon

    Keynes on reputation
    John Maynard Keynes is one of the most well-known economists ever. It turns out he had some insights about markets and human nature too. Keynes laid out his views in Chapter 12 of The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.

    I read Chapter 12 recently. It offers a densely packed introduction to the headwinds of long-term investing.

    Like, Ben Graham, Keynes believed that investing has more to do with managing yourself than your money. He understood that the advantages market’s offered often brought out some of the worst in investors. Not surprising, they both chalk it up to being drawn toward speculation. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Qualifying “Forever”

    March 3, 2017

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    Jon

    Warren Buffett repeatedly says his favorite holding period is forever. He’s held Berkshire “forever” but most of his other stocks haven’t lasted that long. Still, this is one of Buffett’s mantras, held as gospel, that tends to lead investors astray.

    Anytime you deal with stocks, you also deal with the fact that the business might change. Tying a stock to a predetermined holding period is a bad idea. I would like to think most people understand that, but I guess not.

    In the recent Berkshire letter, Buffett actually took the time to qualify his “forever” statement: Continue Reading…


  • 5 Lessons from the 2016 Berkshire Letter

    March 1, 2017

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    Jon

    Buffett on price
    Warren Buffett has been dispensing wisdom in Berkshire shareholder letters since 1965. Over that time, he transformed the company from a decent business with a great investment portfolio to a conglomerate of great businesses with a decent investment portfolio.

    The transformation was done at a rate of a 20.8% return (based on market value) or a 1,972,595% gain over that period. Mind boggling.

    Buffett’s latest letter doesn’t fall short on things to learn. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Relentless Innovation

    February 24, 2017

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    Jon

    The 2017 version of the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook is out and available for download. The Yearbook, for those who don’t know, is a great resource for historical returns nerds like me. It takes a long view of market returns from 1900 to today for five asset classes and 23 countries.

    The available Yearbook is only the summary version but it still has 60 pages worth of great info and charts like this: Continue Reading…


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