Every investment brings with it a range of potential outcomes. That range is wider or narrower depending on the investment. Somewhere in that range sits a most likely outcome. And knowing the most likely outcome helps with making investment decisions.
Of course, the most likely outcome isn’t guaranteed to happen. For example, if the most likely outcome has a 70% chance of success, it means there’s a 30% chance something else happens. So what if that something else happens?
As Peter Bernstein makes clear, in an old interview with Jason Zweig, knowing the consequences is the most important part of understanding risk: Continue Reading…
