Novel Investor

Compounding investing wisdom...

Howard Marks: The Messy Cause and Effect of Cycles

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Howard Marks makes a point in his book, Mastering the Market Cycle, that cycles are messy. The repetition of cycles is not like a metronome — up and down, up and down — sounding off regular intervals. The repetition is only in a very general sense.

It’s not that B follows A and C follows B, but A leads to B because a multitude of factors influenced the how, why, when, and where of the next leg of the sequence causing B to happen. Then a multitude of factors causes C, and so on.

The point Marks is making is that cycles aren’t clean and uniform in the real world, but more of a jumbled messy interaction between human behavior, markets, businesses, economies…and so forth: Continue Reading…

Joel Greenblatt’s Version of Mr. Market

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Ben Graham’s Parable of Mr. Market is a simple story that gets to the heart of how the stock market works and how investors should work the stock market. Proof of its importance lies in just how often it gets retold. The thing about each retelling is that while the story is roughly the same, each storyteller adds their own spin, often focusing on a unique thing.

Joel Greenblatt’s version focuses on the one thing that is easily overlooked — the choice to do nothing. In every market situation, you have three options: buy, sell, or do nothing. A massive amount of digital ink is spilled on the first two. The market news and commentary revolve around it.

Yet, the last choice — the most important one — gets little attention. The ability to do nothing, to sit on your hands, and not react every time Mr. Market rattles off a crazy number for a piece of paper fits with the fortitude, patience, and discipline needed to succeed. Continue Reading…

Lessons on Risk From Peter Bernstein

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Being wrong, missing out, volatility, permanent loss…risk gets defined too many ways. It’s true, and yet, risk is a little more complex than a simple definition when uncertainty is involved.

After reading through a few dozen pieces from Peter Bernstein, I’m fairly sure he had risk figured out as best as anyone can figure it out. Though he doesn’t offer a simple definition for risk – the first highlight below is a great soundbite to add to the list — he does deliver a better way to think about it in a broader sense.

What follows are some of Bernstein’s thoughts on risk that stood out most in what I read. Continue Reading…

Happy Hour: The Spooky Month?

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October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. — Mark Twain

Octobers seem to be a spooky month and I’m not talking about Holloween. That’s because a few big market crashes give October a bad name — October 1929, 1987, and 2008. Those three Octobers were the three worst Octobers respectively.

So 2018’s October ends up being the 9th worst October for the S&P 500 at -6.9% for the month.

Yet historically, Octobers have been fairly tame, except for the outliers. The average S&P 500 return for the month of October is only 0.5%.

And when you compare October to all the other months, it looks less spooky. Continue Reading…

Peter Lynch on Market History

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Reposting this as a reminder that markets move.

Stock prices wobble. Stock markets wobble too. Sometimes it’s more like a tremor. In any case, it’s a daily thing and investors need to be reminded of this.

I’ve been reading some old Peter Lynch interviews and articles he wrote from the late ’90s and early 2000s. Peter Lynch is known for his often misinterpreted “invest in what you know” philosophy. To him, part of owning stocks meant knowing what you own (meaning work and research).

He also meant knowing market history and Lynch knows it well. He’s better at rattling off historic market stats than most. Continue Reading…

Happy Hour: The Speculative Factor

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In most periods the investor must recognize the existence of a speculative factor in his common stock holdings. It is his task to keep this component within minor limits, and to be prepared financially and psychologically for adverse results that may be of short or long duration. — Benjamin Graham

Ben Graham had it right. Within every stock price is a speculative factor.

It’s why a company like Align Technology can have a market cap of $31 billion one month and $23 billion a month later. It’s why AMD can drop from $36 billion to $26 billion in a month. And it’s why Nektar Therapeutics can go from $11 billion to $7 billion in the same period. That’s a change of -39%, -38%, and -37% respectively in market cap over one month!

Why those three stocks? Maybe you’ve never heard of them, but if you own an S&P 500 fund, you own all three stocks. And those three stocks are the worst performers in the S&P 500 since it hit a high on September 20, 2018 (and they’re not isolated either). Continue Reading…

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