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  • Happy Hour: Falling Short

    April 14, 2017

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    Jon

    The latest SPIVA Scorecard on the U.S. fund industry was released this week. Only 8% of large-cap, 5% of mid-cap, and 7% of small-cap fund managers beat their benchmarks over the past 15 years.

    That’s pitiful. It shouldn’t be a surprise either.

    Common sense says there are too many mutual funds to manage and not enough great money managers to go around. Just like anything else that requires skill, there’s a limited number of “best” people. The rest are average, mediocre, or worse. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Jelly Beans and the Stock Market

    April 7, 2017

    ·

    Jon

    Joel Greenblatt recently did a Talks at Google (video is embedded below). You might remember him from such books as The Little Book that Beats the Market and You Can Be a Stock Market Genius. He also ran a very concentrated portfolio that produced mind-boggling returns.

    Greenblatt told the story about recently teaching a class of 9th graders. He started the class with an experiment. He brought in a big jar full of jelly beans, passed out index cards, and asked the kids to guess the number of jelly beans in the jar.

    So the kids tried to count the individual jelly beans or the rows of jelly beans or found some other ways to come up with their best guess. Then they wrote their guess on their card. Continue Reading…


  • Charlie Munger on Dexter Shoes and Handling Mistakes

    April 5, 2017

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    Jon

    Mistakes are part of investing. There’s no way around it. So you might as well expect mistakes eventually, learn from it, and move forward. Just make sure that those mistakes don’t set you back so much that you can’t move forward.

    Being properly diversified is one way to do that. In other words, you can make a few mistakes but your other investments make up for it and more.

    Margin of safety is another. Leaving room for error goes a long way in reducing losses.

    After the this year’s Daily Journal Annual meeting, Charlie Munger stuck around for more questions (a transcript of that Q&A session in the Library). He was asked how he handles learning from mistakes, which led to another question on Dexter Shoes. Here’s what he said: Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Differing Point of View

    March 31, 2017

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    Jon

    Debt can be very helpful or hurtful. In business, debt is called leverage for a reason. It can grow a business and increase earnings. But misusing debt can turn that leverage into an anchor.

    James Montier at GMO points out the misuse of debt to fund share buybacks (along with a few other things) and how it relates to the current market prices, in his latest paper Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast.

    The debt for buybacks issue has been pointed out numerous times before, but it’s been largely overlooked or ignored. Buying back shares is a short term fix to show “growing” earnings per share. If you’re just looking at this on the surface, earnings per share is higher. Everything’s great, move along. Continue Reading…


  • Charlie Munger on Change and Patience

    March 30, 2017

    ·

    Jon

    Charlie Munger on ChangeI’m in the middle of transcribing Charlie Munger’s unofficial Q&A session after the recent DJCO meeting. He was kind enough to stick around afterward for pictures and questions and someone was nice enough to record some of it.

    Charlie shared a lot of interesting thoughts and I wanted to quickly share a bit of it here. The transcript will be available in the Library once I finish.

    ***

    Question: Charlie, do you think businesses are becoming more fragile with technology and transparency? Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Fast or Slow

    March 24, 2017

    ·

    Jon

    I can google anything and get a list of results in less than a second. If I click one of those links and the site takes too long to load, I’ll likely leave before I see it. How long is too long? Two seconds.

    Let that sink in.

    As a site owner, this will drive you crazy trying to optimize for speed. But just based on the stats, it’s insane. Most people will not wait an extra second or two for results they want. Continue Reading…


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