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2018: A Year in Returns

January 4, 2019

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Jon

Shelby Davis once said, “Bear markets make people a lot of money, they just don’t know it at the time.” Based on some fancy rounding, the S&P 500 hit the unwritten 20% decline rule (19.77% for sticklers) for a bear market based on 2018’s September high to the Christmas Eve low (thanks Santa).

Yet, despite that, the S&P 500 finished the year with a -4.4% total return. Global markets looked less pretty. And cash was king again.

Unless, of course, you’re a net buyer of stocks. To paraphrase Davis — bear markets are a great buying opportunity, they just don’t feel like it at the time. That feeling is the hard part for new investors and the rest of us who forgot how the last bear market felt.

Now, not all bear markets are like the last bear market. The lesson from that one was that it was excruciatingly hard for many investors to buy but also the greatest buying opportunity for anyone with time on their side. Continue Reading…
Thoughts on 2018. Looking Ahead to 2019

December 14, 2018

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Jon

So if I asked you how the market performed this year, what would you say? Positive? Negative? How much?

With two weeks left to the year, the S&P 500 returned 1.01% on a total return basis so far. With all the volatility this year from two corrections, I would not be shocked if anyone thought it was worse.

If the year ends positive, the S&P 500 will have ten straight years without a loss. It’d be a first.

Nine-year streaks have happened twice since 1926 — the current streak from 2009 to 2017 and the nine-year period from 1991 to 1999. A ten-year positive streak is not normal by historical standards. Neither is nine years for that matter. Continue Reading…
What I Learned from the Most Popular Posts of 2018

December 12, 2018

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Jon

With a couple weeks left to the year, it’s time for a review.

Like last year, I spent most of 2018 sharing what I found in books, articles, interviews, etc. And like every year, I still have no clue why some posts get traction over others.

Big names certainly help, as you’ll likely notice below. But beyond that, the sort of randomness to it remains a mystery to me. Regardless of why, when it does happen, it’s always a nice surprise and I appreciate it!

The broad lesson from this year, much like every year, is this: The studying of strategies, factors, and allocations is pointless if you don’t have the prerequisite behavior to go with it. Compounding misbehavior, mistakes, and poor decisions are the easiest way to go broke. Doing the opposite (more often than not), finding a strategy you can stick with, one that fits your quirks (along with a regular saving schedule), is how to grow wealth.

The secret is there are no secrets. The lessons in the posts below span over 130 years. None of it is new or groundbreaking. It’s all grounded in common sense. Someone just said it differently enough to strike a chord.

Here are the most read posts of 2018: Continue Reading…
Seth Klarman: The Hardest Decision of All

December 7, 2018

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Jon

Seth Klarman describes selling as “the hardest decision of all.” That would make buying the second hardest decision.

The art of buying means first realizing that price fluctuations are a feature of markets that also tend to trigger emotions like fear and greed. If an investment is really worth buying, day to day price moves shouldn’t matter.

But once something is bought, those emotional triggers still exist, only now your money is at stake, along with a new issue of knowing precisely when to sell. Here’s Klarman: Continue Reading…
Marty Whitman: The Art of Good Enough Investing

December 5, 2018

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Jon

The idea of good enough flies in the face of the belief we have absolute control over our investment results. We don’t have control but want to believe we do because the alternative — being out of our hands — can be unsettling.

That feeling leads people to obsess over the minutiae in the market and economy, in order to predict the future, so they can perfectly time the market turns, and maximize returns.

In reality, investing is messy. Perfection is a lofty goal doomed to failure because mistakes and being wrong are part of the process. So is dumb luck. And bad luck.

Good enough investing accepts the messiness up front. Smart investing strategies are built around it, by accepting the role probability plays and, given time, swings success in their favor. The best outcome isn’t necessarily the best return, but a favorable return.

Marty Whitman explained his version of good enough investing in a 1996 shareholder letter. He boiled it down to knowing the limits of his skill and being less active. Once his “safe and cheap” criteria were met, it came down to good enough. Continue Reading…
The Short-Term Trap

November 30, 2018

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Jon

A Seth Klarman speech, titled Hard Decisions, about the constant pressure toward a short-term view and the expansive pitfalls it creates. It’s worth reading.

Consider corporate time horizons. It’s a choice to attempt to maximize corporate results over the very short run and a different and sometimes harder decision to take a longer-term view. I’m convinced that one of society’s most vexing problems is the relentlessly short-term orientation that manifests itself in investing, in business decision-making, and in our politics. Educational and philanthropic endowments, for example, with institutional time horizons that necessarily span centuries, invest their funds with monthly performance comparisons. Jeremy Grantham, cofounder of the global investment firm GMO, recently observed in the context of governmental inaction on climate change, “We face a form of capitalism that has hardened its focus to short-term profit maximization with little or no apparent interest in social good.”
Continue Reading…

2018: A Year in Returns

Thoughts on 2018. Looking Ahead to 2019

What I Learned from the Most Popular Posts of 2018

Seth Klarman: The Hardest Decision of All

Marty Whitman: The Art of Good Enough Investing

The Short-Term Trap