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  • Happy Hour: Munger & Buffett Reading

    February 23, 2018

    ·

    Jon

    It’s annual letter/meeting season and if you follow Munger or Buffett at all, you might already know what this is about.

    So first Munger, then Buffett.

    The Daily Journal annual meeting was held last week. Charlie Munger is the Chairman and always gets peppered with random questions unrelated to the company. There are some good questions, some repeat questions get asked every year, but Charlie’s answers are great and often entertaining.

    Of course, the downside to the random questions at these meetings is that you really have to read the entire thing to find the real nuggets. Thankfully, a couple people recorded the meeting, transcribed it, and shared it for the rest of us to enjoy.

    I’ll share one (don’t want to ruin the rest for you). Links are after the quote: Continue Reading…


  • Lesson from a Senator: How Experience Shapes Investing Decisions

    February 21, 2018

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    Jon

    In 1955, the Senate Committee on Banking and Currency decided a stock market study was in order. The big concern was whether the market was euphoric and what to do about if it was. They didn’t want a repeat of ’29.

    So they rounded up all the big names to expound on the market. Ben Graham was one of those people who offered his enlightening two cents.

    John Kenneth Galbraith was another.

    I think the senators were hoping for a way to stop the market mid-boom – shut the euphoria off like a garden hose spigot – without an ensuing crash. Galbraith didn’t mince words on that possibility and who would be blamed for it:

    As I say, once the boom is well underway it cannot be arrested. It can only be collapsed. And the unfortunate feature of that is that the person who does the collapsing is terribly visible.

    Shocking that a bunch of elected politicians hated that outcome. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: 4 Investing Principles

    February 16, 2018

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    Jon

    The folks at SumZero published a great interview with  Micheal Mauboussin this week that is worth reading this weekend.

    The interview is not too long, but it focuses on the opportunities for active management going forward. So things like value investing, market inefficiencies, systematic strategies, and more were discussed.

    However, the final question reflected on a great piece Mauboussin wrote in 2016 on ten principles that make a great investor. He was asked which of the principles were the most important to his success as an investor.

    Here’s what he said: Continue Reading…


  • Seth Klarman on Risk Management

    February 14, 2018

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    Jon

    For whatever reason, investors have a hard time dreaming of the high returns they can earn from an investment while also thinking about its risks. A deficiency in multitasking, I guess.

    But it plays a big enough role in poor investment performance that Seth Klarman spent a chapter in his book explaining why risk management – avoiding losses – is the cornerstone of a value philosophy.

    His explanation starts with the one thing we’re all terrible at, yet so many investors try to do it anyway. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Official Correction

    February 9, 2018

    ·

    Jon

    We have an official correction!

    Sorry if that comes off a bit too happy about the market’s poor performance. As great as last year’s performance was, it was frustratingly boring for someone looking for bargain prices.

    Yesterday, the Dow and S&P 500 both finished 10% below their previous high from two weeks ago.

    If we learned anything this week, it’s that market volatility still exists. In other words, the past year was abnormal for volatility.

    But for those of us with a long-term perspective, this is good news (net buyers of stocks should want lower prices). Continue Reading…


  • Oh Yeah? Forecasting Follies Around the ’29 Crash

    February 7, 2018

    ·

    Jon

    Irving Fisher on the Stock Market 10/16/29

    Irving Fisher summed up the attitude of the late 1920s perfectly. His “permanently high plateau” epitomized the euphoria of the time and called for the end of financial cycles.

    There was a lot to be excited about.

    The ’20s economy offered only brief, mild recessions with exceptional growth and an extended bull market. One new innovation after another led a belief that scientific invention would cure all of life’s problems…and it was right around the corner.

    And new financial “innovations” – investment trusts (new for the U.S.) and buying on margin (investors and trusts could buy stocks for 10-20% down with the other 80-90% paid back after selling for a tidy profit) – made it easier for average people to profit from the stock market.

    In the heat of it all, some of the smartest financial minds, business leaders, and politicians were certain the 1920s brought about a new economic age. Continue Reading…


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