Quotes on Market History

We deceive ourselves when we believe that past stock market return patterns provide the bounds by which we can predict the future.

The history of markets is one of overreaction in both directions.

In Wall Street, what has happened before will happen again. It must, as you will admit if you stop to think about it.

The trading favorites of 1928 were high-priced, untried, and unseasoned stocks that made one wonder whether the public did not think that the higher the price the better the stock.

The lesson of history is that norms are never normal forever. Paradigm shifts belie blind faith in regression to the mean.

The history of the stock market shows many periods of twenty years or more when stock prices ended up precisely where they began.

I had a margin call in 1924, and I swore I never would buy on margin again. That's one of the main reasons I got through the 1930s.

The tour we've taken through the last century proves that market irrationality of an extreme kind periodically erupts -- and compellingly suggests that investors wanting to do well had better learn how to deal with the next outbreak.

History does not tell you of future things happening.

We learned in the '20s that markets with participants playing heavily on margins could be more dangerous than markets where people are dealing in cash.

Real life is not a random draw but a connected sequence of events in which each event is the consequence of the preceding event.

Volatility is not risk. And historic volatility does not necessarily project future volatility.

I think investors always learn the lessons of the recent past. And that is the lesson.

All of history and all of life is stuffed full of the unexpected and the unthinkable.

The constant lesson of history is the dominant role played by surprise. Just when we are most comfortable with an environment and come to believe we finally understand it, the ground shifts under our feet.

While we can learn from the long run about how bonds and stocks respond to changing environments and to each other, the long run can tell us perilously little about what kinds of environments lie ahead.

What you learn from history is the market goes down. It goes down a lot.

The strange revolutions wrought by time are nowhere so evident as in the securities market, where an accurate comparison of the present with the past is afforded by the price record over a period of years.

They used to say about the Bourbons that they forgot nothing and they learned nothing, and I'll say about the Wall Street people, typically, is that they learn nothing, and they forget everything.

It is a safe prediction for me to make that, in future years as in the past, common stocks will advance too far and decline too far, and that investors, like speculators -- and institutions, like individuals -- will have their periods of enchantment and disenchantment with equities.

I think the future of equities will be roughly the same as their past; in particular, common stock purchases will prove satisfactory when made at appropriate price levels.

No prediction -- whether of a repetition of past patterns or of a complete break with past patterns -- can be proved in advance to be right.

Experience in former markets indicates that just as they are too high in bull markets, they get too low in bear markets.

Economic history never repeats itself exactly.

I believe that the trend of stock equities will continue in the future as it has in the past -- and that is irregularly upward, with some emphasis upon the adverb irregularly.

The broad pattern of market action in the past is the best guide to the future -- but it is not an infallible guide.