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Quotes on Forecasting

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Quote Authors

Benjamin Graham, Bernard Baruch, Charles Ellis, Charlie Munger, Chuck Akre, Daniel Kahneman, David Abrams, Dean Williams, Edward Thorp, Edwin Lefevre, Fred Schwed Jr, Henry Singleton, Hetty Green, Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, John Bogle, John Kenneth Galbraith, John Maynard Keynes, John Stuart Mill, John Templeton, Meir Statman, Myron Scholes, Peter Bernstein, Peter Lynch, Philip Carret, Philip Fisher, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Seth Klarman, Stanley Druckenmiller, Walter Schloss, Warren Buffett,

“
If you have an opinion about the level of prices, it should be an opinion based upon your concept of the values of securities in relation to price, rather than on any prophecy or expectation of changes or of the continuance of a given moment.
”

Benjamin Graham
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I am skeptical about stock market forecasting by anybody, and particularly by bankers.
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Benjamin Graham
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The influence on stock prices are so numerous and so complex that no person has ever been able to predict the trend of stock prices with consistent success.
”

John Templeton
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The actual results of an investment over a long term of years very seldom agree with the initial expectation.
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John Maynard Keynes
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I make no attempt to forecast the general market -- my efforts are devoted to finding undervalued securities.
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Warren Buffett
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We don't buy and sell stocks based upon what other people think the stock market is going to do (I never have an opinion) but rather upon what we think the company is going to do.
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Warren Buffett
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While majority opinion can give any market movement considerable momentum that keeps it going in the same direction, majority opinion is inevitably and consistently wrong at turning points.
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Peter Bernstein
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Stock prices reflect the obvious, not the obscure.
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Peter Bernstein
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Forecasts usually tell us more about the forecaster than of the future.
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Warren Buffett
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The fact that people will be full of greed, fear, or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable.
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Warren Buffett
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History does not tell you of future things happening.
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Warren Buffett
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In all my 55 years on Wall Street, before I retired to do something vastly more important, I was never able to say when the market would go up or down. Nor was I able to find anybody on Earth whose opinion I would value on the subject of when it would go up and down.
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John Templeton
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Our expectations of the future are not unbiased and do not reflect all available information.
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Peter Bernstein
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In speaking of future prospects it is often difficult to make the distinction clear between what one considers the most desirable in the public interest and what one reckons to be the most probable in the actual circumstances. For unfortunately the course of events which is the most desirable is not always the most probable!
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John Maynard Keynes
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I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two since I don't have the faintest idea.
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Warren Buffett
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In my view, predicting future private market value is like predicting future Dow Jones levels: It doesn't make any sense at all.
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Seth Klarman
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I deal in facts, not forecasting the future.
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Peter Lynch
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Even the most serious efforts to make predictions can end up so far from the mark as to be more dangerous than useless.
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Peter Bernstein
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One point movements may be likened to the ripples of the stock market, whose occurrence may be influenced by so great a multitude of factors that it is impossible to forecast them. Ten-point movements may perhaps be compared to waves.
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Philip Carret
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You can’t forecast multiples.
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Peter Bernstein
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Corrections are unpredictable. By selling stocks to avoid pain, you can miss the next gain.
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Peter Lynch
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"This one is different," is the doomsayer's litany, and, in fact, every recession is different, but that doesn't mean it's going to ruin us.
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Peter Lynch
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Every recession brings out the skeptics who doubt that we will ever come out of it, and who predict that we will soon fall into a depression, when new cars will sit unsold in the showrooms forever and houses will stand empty, and the country will go bankrupt.
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Peter Lynch
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There are economic facts and there's economic predictions and economic predictions are a total waste.
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Peter Lynch
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No one can predict with any certainty which way the next 1,000 points will be. Market fluctuations, while no means comfortable, are normal.
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Peter Lynch
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In all my 60 years in the stock market, I never found anyone whose opinion of what the stock market would do next week or next month was worth heeding.
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John Templeton
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If we use prediction as the measure of a model, traditional finance makes precisely wrong predictions.
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Richard Thaler
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Extrapolation is usually right, but not valuable, and predictions of deviation from trends are potentially profitable but rarely right. So far, macro-economic forecasting doesn't represent the path to superior investments.
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Howard Marks
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I've listened to a lot of economic briefings, and I've had a lot of visits from economists, and I've never encountered one who was right consistently.
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Howard Marks
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Being "right" doesn't lead to superior performance if the consensus forecast is also right.
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Howard Marks
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Most of us have roughly the same ability to predict the future. The trouble is, being right as often as the average forecaster won't produce superior results.
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Howard Marks
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Extreme predictions are rarely right, but they're the ones that make you big money.
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Howard Marks
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Potentially profitable, nonconsensus forecasts are very hard to believe in and act on for the simple reason that they are so far from conventional wisdom.
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Howard Marks
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The trouble with market forecasting is not that it is done by unintelligent and unskillful people. Quite to the contrary, the trouble is that it is done by so many really expert people that their efforts constantly neutralize each other, and end up almost exactly in zero.
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Benjamin Graham
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If we really knew what the future will bring that is all we would have to know; but since stock market people can only guess the future and since they have the embarrassing habit of guessing wrongly, it seems best not to lay too much stress upon forecasts.
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Benjamin Graham
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It is a safe prediction for me to make that, in future years as in the past, common stocks will advance too far and decline too far, and that investors, like speculators -- and institutions, like individuals -- will have their periods of enchantment and disenchantment with equities.
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Benjamin Graham
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No prediction -- whether of a repetition of past patterns or of a complete break with past patterns -- can be proved in advance to be right.
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Benjamin Graham
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It is usually a much simpler matter to forecast a bull market than to call the turn at its end.
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Philip Carret
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I didn't spend any time predicting the economy, or the stock market. I spent all my time looking at companies.
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Peter Lynch
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I've been fully invested at the start of all the major declines and I will be fully invested in the next one. I am not a market predictor, that's for darn sure.
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Peter Lynch
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Even in good markets we have declines and trying to predict its direction over the near term is an exercise in futility.
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Peter Lynch
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It would be very useful to know what the market is going to do. But unfortunately, of all the market corrections that have ever come, no one has been able to predict them.
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Peter Lynch
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Guessing at the future rate of interest is, in my opinion, one of the most puzzling problems in the world.
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John Maynard Keynes
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A lifetime of investment research has taught me to become more and more humble about making predictions.
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John Templeton
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Forecasting is a notoriously underpaid profession, and extremely risky to boot, so I avoid it.
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John Kenneth Galbraith
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No one, not even the most experienced trader, economist or businessman can predict with certainty the course of the stock market.
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Bernard Baruch
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When it comes to statements about the future in the economic realm, none of us have knowledge in the scientific sense of the term. What we have is opinions and surmises -- let us hope, based upon adequate reflections and study.
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Benjamin Graham
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Economic events rarely unfold in the way stock-market people forecast them.
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Benjamin Graham
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