Quote for the Week
One of the first lessons I heard about pendulums and the swing of investor behavior regarded something I was taught in the early 1970s: the three stages of a bull market. These succinctly capture the essence of investor psychology.
The first stage comes when a few people begin to realize that there will be improvement. The second stage occurs when most people realize that improvement is already taking place. The third stage comes when everyone thinks that things will be getting better forever. Clearly, the first is early; the last is laughably late. One of my favorite adages – perhaps my favorite of all – is that what the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end. So it’s the buyer in the third stage – who buys when optimism is incorporated, under the assumption that things will always get better – who pays the price. — Howard Marks (source)
From the Archives
Last Call
- 52 things I learned in 2024 – T. Whitwell
- 90 Facts from 2024 – The Idea Farm
- Stuck at Home – J. Clements
- Low Probability of Loss: Why It Doesn’t Equal Low Risk in Investing – Enterprising Investor
- Fast Growers are Common, Fast Compounders are Rare – Klement on Investing
- Baltasar Gracián & Charlie Munger – Andvari
- How Does Information’s Repetition Affect Its Believability? – Milkman Delivers
- Holding On to the Truth – The Leap
- Dr. Semmelweis vs. the World – Infinite Loops
- Always Trust Mike Myers – Vulture