With 2017 coming to a close, the forecast machine is working overtime predicting what will happen next year. “The wackier the better” is how the game works because it draws the biggest headlines.
Unfortunately, these people sound sincere, educated, and expert-y, so we’re more apt to believe them.
Don’t.
A magic eight ball is about as useful as the people spewing these predictions. So take it all with a heaping pile of salt. Like the magic eight ball, view it as purely entertainment.
The exception is the outlook reports looking beyond 2018 that take a long-term probabilistic approach. Vanguard – which does a better job than most – released their outlook this week. Continue Reading…

Since 2009, the stock market returned almost 15% annually. That’s a great return. It’s an even better return considering most people believed it was impossible in 2009…2010…2011…2012…