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  • A Reminder from Peter Lynch

    November 15, 2017

    ·

    Jon

    Lynch on correctionsSince 2009, the stock market returned almost 15% annually. That’s a great return. It’s an even better return considering most people believed it was impossible in 2009…2010…2011…2012…

    But that’s how investor perception plays out: either the good times will keep rolling or things will get worse.

    Now, the argument can be made that the current bull market hasn’t been running since 2009. If it was 2012, then the market returned about 15% annually. If it was 2016, it’s been about 14% annually.

    The sticklers can argue about dates. It’s been a great return…for those who earned it. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Mellow Mr. Market

    November 10, 2017

    ·

    Jon

    The Parable of Mr. Market is the most important lessons Graham taught in The Intelligent Investor. It’s a simple story that offers a great way to think about the stock market.

    Mr. Market can quote some ridiculous prices from time to time that has nothing to do with the business. You can get caught up in his mood swings, take advantage of him, or ignore him. Mr. Market doesn’t care.

    The nice thing about this story is it gets retold all time – usually around market lows – by great investors who add their own twist, which gives you some reflection on the times. So anytime I run across it, I save it.

    Seth Klarman told his version in the 2000 Baupost letter following the Dotcom crash: Continue Reading…


  • Henry Singleton: The Art of Allocation

    November 8, 2017

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    Jon

    Henry Singleton on market timingHenry Singleton is known as one of the best capital allocators ever. He took advantage of the market’s enthusiasm for Teledyne shares during the late ’60s conglomerate craze to buy up companies.

    For example, in 1966, with the stock trading around 40x earnings, he issued shares to buy 20 companies. In 1967, with the stock around 50x earnings, he acquired 30 more. He followed the process of issuing high priced shares to acquire cheaper companies until he acquired over 130 in all.

    And when the market turned and Teledyne’s stock sank, he bought all the shares back. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Story Stocks

    November 3, 2017

    ·

    Jon

    People love a good story and the market is an endless supply of tragedy and possibilities. You just have to pick the right script.

    Tales get told every day about why the market did what it did, why a stock went up or down, or how some bit of news affects markets going forward.

    It’s just stories…tall tales…fairy tales…sometimes…that can help make sense of the information because a narrative is easier to digest than all the data. This works out well if the stories take an objective view, but that’s not always the case.

    Instead, we often get cherry-picked data to create a good story or fit some preconceived conclusion. Or we string together a series of data to explain how and why something happened and how it impacts the future when really it was a series of random events (since random, luck, and chance don’t add a sense of certainty, we create a story instead).

    Story stocks thrive on this: Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Index Fund Pushback

    October 27, 2017

    ·

    Jon

    Only owning 30 stocks, in a world awash in index funds, probably sounds inadequate.

    It’s not.

    Ben Graham made the argument for owning 30 stocks in the last post. He also argued for owning an index. I say both are acceptable.

    I could argue that 30 stocks are five or ten more than necessary. I once only owned five stocks, which was probably too few. Though, Charlie Munger seems to think five is adequate for him.

    The point is that 30 isn’t an outrageously inadequate number. Also, what might be right for Charlie, may not be right for you or me. So don’t invest like him, if that’s the case.

    But owning 30 stocks is enough because the math says so. Joel Greenblatt did the work for us in You Can Be A Stock Market Genius: Continue Reading…


  • Ben Graham’s Simple Investing Advice

    October 25, 2017

    ·

    Jon

    Investing has never been easier, yet more complex than today. Anyone can open an account, deposit money, and be “investing” in minutes.

    But the instant that happens, they’re inundated with choices: risk tolerance, strategies, asset classes, factors, thousands of stocks, and even more funds. It makes you yearn for simplicity.

    Ben Graham kept things simple. A lot of that had to do with the lack of available choices at the time.

    He kept the investor classifications to a minimum. There were speculators and there were investors. And among investors, there were enterprising or defensive. The difference between the two depended on the amount of time and effort you wanted to put into investing. That was it. Continue Reading…


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