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  • 2019: First Half Returns

    July 10, 2019

    ·

    Jon

    Global markets looked rejuvenated in the first half of 2019. Gains were seen practically across the board.

    In the U.S., the S&P 500 shook off 2018’s 20% peak to trough decline to reach new highs. But it was foreign markets that topped the list.

    Of course, for investors, you had to be in the market to earn those gains. And I doubt many expected market returns of this level in a mere six months. It just shows that timing is hard for a reason.

    Here are a few observations before getting to the results: Continue Reading…


  • Favorite Lines from Fred Schwed’s Classic

    June 28, 2019

    ·

    Jon

    Fred Schwed’s classic Where are the Customers’ Yachts? delivers simple financial truths with a side a satire. He presents the unvarnished view of Wall Street as he saw it:

    …thousands of erring humans, of varying degrees of good will, solemnly engaged in the business of predicting the unpredictable.

    The book is filled with more great lines about timeless lessons on investing, speculating, and Wall Street.

    I thought I’d share a few of my favorites: Continue Reading…


  • Where Are The Customers’ Yachts? by Fred Schwed Jr.

    June 27, 2019

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    Where Are The Customers Yachts by Fred Schwed Jr.Buy the Book: Print

    Fred Schwed delivers a cynical, sarcastic, insiders perspective on the business of Wall Street. His book stands as a timeless warning to investors and speculators alike.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


  • Buffett: Picking Winners is Hard

    June 26, 2019

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    Jon

    Transformative innovation creates an explosion of new businesses followed by a surge of extinctions. Picking the winners is hard.

    Warren Buffett tried to teach this lesson to a group of business leaders in 1999. To say it was well received would be an understatement.

    None of the new Dot-com royalty cared to listen to an old man, out of touch with the new reality, saying most of their companies were doomed to failure. To them, no price was too high to pay for their good idea. It was a twisted view born out of the excesses in rising stock prices.

    In the end, Buffett was right. But at the time, all he had was an argument built around common sense, facts, and history. Here’s how he relayed it in a speech at the Sun Valley Conference in July 1999: Continue Reading…


  • The Last Edge: Avoiding Negative Action

    June 21, 2019

    ·

    Jon

    We can point out the errors to be avoided much more successfully than we can lay out a course of positive action.

    G.C. Selden wrote that line in 1912. It fits Munger’s idea of inversion: figure out the best ways to lose money, then avoid doing those things. It’s a common-sense way to improve returns.

    I came across this idea twice this week (it happens every week, really) from century-old sources. Selden covered the usual suspects — over-optimism, enthusiasm, stubbornness, fear, anger, greed — before summarizing his book on investor psychology. Continue Reading…


  • Psychology of the Stock Market by G.C. Selden

    June 20, 2019

    ·

    Psychology of the Stock MarketBuy the Book: Print | eBook

    G.C. Selden’s timeless book describes the influence human nature has on markets and what investors/traders must do to overcome potential behavioral errors to be successful. It’s as relevant today as it was when it was published in 1912.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


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