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  • Carol Loomis on Buyback Yield

    August 16, 2019

    ·

    Jon

    Carol Loomis wrote about the benefit of buybacks in 1985:

    Working with the 1,660 stocks covered by the Value Line Investment Survey, we identified companies that bought significant amounts of their own common stock in the ten years from 1974 through 1983. Next we reduced this list to voluntary repurchasers — cutting out, for example, companies that had bought the shares by paying “greenmail” to get rid of a threatening shareholder. Then we measured the total returns (stock appreciation plus dividends) earned by shareholders from the approximate dates of each repurchase “episode” to the end of 1984…

    The outcome is spectacularly decisive. The shareholders in the buyback companies earned superb returns, far exceeding those accruing to investors as a whole. For all episodes measured, the buyback companies showed a median total return, expressed as an annual average, compounded, of 22.6%. The equivalent return for the S&P 500 was only 14.1%. That difference of 8.5 percentage points is enormously significant to an investor.

    This information has been floating around ever since and the research shows the strategy still works.

    The reason comes down to basic math. Buffett calls it smart allocation: Continue Reading…


  • Old Idioms of Wall Street

    August 7, 2019

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    Jon

    Finance has a language all its own, with unique phrases that go back a few centuries. A few good examples can be found in an 1875 sales pamphlet book from John Hickling & Co.

    Readers got the total Wall Street experience — they snuck in a weekly newsletter and “improved” trading system sales pitch — while learning about the Men and Idioms of Wall Street (not much has changed).

    Promotions aside, the idioms are spot on and still offer a few lessons. So I thought I’d share a few that stood out: Continue Reading…


  • The Art of Investing by John F. Hume

    July 30, 2019

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    Art of Investing by John F. HumeBuy the Book: eBook | PDF

    John Ferguson Hume warns readers on many ways to lose money investing and speculating. The book represents a historical glimpse into Wall Street of the late 1800s and the timeless lessons of investor behavior.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


  • The Acquirer’s Multiple by Tobias Carlisle

    July 26, 2019

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    The Acquirers MultipleBuy the Book: Print | eBook

    Tobias Carlisle breaks down how investors like Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, and others take advantage of the powerful force in markets known as mean reversion, why it exists, the opportunities it creates, and how a deep value strategy captures it.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


  • Benchmarks and the Relative Return Bias

    July 26, 2019

    ·

    Jon

    Absolute returns get a lot of lip service, but we have a relative return bias. Peter Bernstein weighed in on the bias and suggest benchmarks don’t help.

    The downsides are fairly obvious. Relative returns feel great during bull markets. But when a year like 2008 comes around, you beat the benchmark but still lose big.

    To add to it, fund managers (and advisors) also have career risk that feeds the relative return bias. All of it leads to more opportunities for short term thinking and poor behavior.

    Seth Klarman simplified the problem perfectly: “You can’t think straight with a gun to your head. If you have a relative performance gun to your head, on the way down and on the way up, you’ll do the wrong thing every time. You’ll be liking them when they’re up, and hating them when they’re down – when you should be doing the opposite.”

    Absolute returns should be the answer but investors contend with a powerful force: return envy. You have to be comfortable with “losing” to the Jones or an arbitrary index in any given year. What matters is “Are you earning a good return?”

    Here’s what Bernstein had to say: Continue Reading…


  • Daniel Kahneman: The Most Important Bias

    July 24, 2019

    ·

    Jon

    Casinos thrive because people are wrong about the odds. The same can be said about investing. The reason why is what Daniel Kahneman calls the “single most important bias.”

    The odds of most gambling games can figured out using grade school math. In a totally rational world, where everyone was out to maximize their money, nobody would play any game that favored the House. But not everyone plays for maximum wealth.

    So there must be something else going on. Entertainment plays a part. The bells and flashing lights and the quick play bring thrills.

    Really, some people think they’re the exception the odds. Ed Thorp calls gambling a tax on ignorance: “People often gamble because they think they can win, they’re lucky, they have hunches, that sort of thing, whereas, in fact, they’re going to be remorselessly ground down over time.”

    Kahneman chalks it up to optimism combined with confidence. He explained how it fits in the context of investing during a 2005 interview: Continue Reading…


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