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  • Lessons from the Best Posts of 2021

    December 10, 2021

    ·

    Jon

    As 2021 draws to a close, let’s review some of the lessons from the most popular posts this year.

    After twelve years of doing this exercise at the end of each year, one thing stands out. I still have no idea what posts will rise to the top and which will flop. The list is entirely a product of your support. So thanks for reading and sharing!

    The collection of posts below covers a range of topics. Most of them are based on something I’ve read this year. Two exceptions, however, are a response to the market craziness this year.

    Right at the top, the market experienced a short squeeze that got everyone’s attention. Of course, it wasn’t the first time it happened (nor the last). So it became an opportunity for a history lesson. The other offers one perspective on how much optimism is priced into the market. The point is market history is filled with things that rhyme with the present. It offers investors a broader perspective on how things might turn out and relieve any angst and worry too.

    As for the rest, it’s an assortment of people and topics. Buffett and Munger make an appearance. Peter Lynch and Bernard Baruch do too. Lou Simpson and Robert Kirby, two under-the-radar names, also show up. Investor behavior and common mistakes were also frequent and relevant themes this year.

    There should be something for everybody. Let’s dive right in. Continue Reading…


  • The Davis Dynasty by John Rothchild

    December 8, 2021

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    The Davis Dynasty book coverBuy the Book: Print | eBook

    The Davis Dynasty is a story about Shelby Collum Davis and his family. The author mixes Davis’s story of how, over a 47-year investing career, he made a fortune with the market history he experienced along the way.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


  • Ice Age by John & Mary Gribbin

    December 1, 2021

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    Ice Age book coverBuy the Book: Print | eBook

    Ice Age details the history of the discovery of the cycle of ice ages. It covers the people behind it and what causes the Earth to cycle from extended periods of a cooler ice age to a warmer interglacial and back again.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


  • Investing Lessons from a 1906 Classic

    November 17, 2021

    ·

    Jon

    Thomas Gibson had a front-row seat to the speculative madness in Wall Street at the start of the 1900s. He saw traders succeed and (mostly) fail on a regular basis for a decade. In those few successes and many failures, some common themes stood out.

    For instance, ignorance, overtrading, and negligence were the main reasons people lost money.

    The business method, as he called it, was absent. More often than not, speculators treated the market as a casino rather a place to buy and sell shares of businesses for cash. They knew little about the companies behind the shares they bought — relying on tips over research.

    Worst of all, they seemed to do everything backward. The height of speculation was always at market peaks when prices and enthusiasm were highest. But when opportunities were prevalent at lower prices, that interest and enthusiasm had dried up. It seemed as though they wanted quick riches, with little to no effort, or not at all. Slowly wouldn’t do.

    Gibson wrapped up those experiences in his first book published in 1906. The Pitfalls of Speculation is a perfect example of how long sound investing principles have been around and how rarely investors heed them. You’ll find some highlights from the book below: Continue Reading…


  • Bernard Baruch: Delusions of Grandeur and Gloom

    October 29, 2021

    ·

    Jon

    By 1933 the economic situation in the U.S. was dire. So dire, in fact, that the U.S. Senate did the unthinkable.

    It held a hearing!

    And so began the Investigation of Economic Problems. The hope was “securing constructive suggestions with respect to the solution of such problems.” Experts like Irving Fisher, Ben Graham, and others offered up letters, statements, and testimony on how to solve the issue of the Great Depression.

    Bernard Baruch was first on the docket. His 67 pages of testimony would cover the gamut — inflation, war, tariffs, taxes, the gold standard, productivity, debt, the federal budget, and widespread fear and doubt in asset prices. It included arguing with an adamant senator who believed that extreme devaluation of the dollar was the answer to everything.

    But one section of his opening statement, titled “The Great Delusion,” stood out: Continue Reading…


  • Stupid Money

    October 22, 2021

    ·

    Jon

    …at particular times a great many stupid people have a great deal of stupid money.

    Walter Bagehot has come up with some wonderful lines in his day. That line, in particular, perfectly describes a recurring theme in financial history.

    Bagehot wrote that line in 1856 about an event that happened in 1720 — The South Sea Bubble. He was describing human nature’s role in turning smart money into stupid money during manias and panics: Continue Reading…


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