Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.
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Businessmen play a mixed game of skill and chance, the average results of which to the players are not known by those who take a hand.
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The actual results of an investment over a long term of years very seldom agree with the initial expectation.
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In speaking of future prospects it is often difficult to make the distinction clear between what one considers the most desirable in the public interest and what one reckons to be the most probable in the actual circumstances. For unfortunately the course of events which is the most desirable is not always the most probable!
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When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.
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Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation.
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There is no clear evidence from experience that the investment policy which is socially advantageous coincides with that which is most profitable.
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In point of fact, all sorts of considerations enter into the market valuation which are in no way relevant to the prospective yield.
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Day-to-day fluctuations in the profits of existing investments, which are obviously of an ephemeral and non-significant character, tend to have an altogether excessive, and even an absurd, influence on the market.
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Guessing at the future rate of interest is, in my opinion, one of the most puzzling problems in the world.
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The game of professional investment is intolerably boring and overexacting to anyone who is entirely exempt from the gambling instinct; whilst he who has it must pay to this propensity the appropriate toll.
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