By the time market declines (or advances) are front-page news, they usually have run their course.
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One of the brightest operators who ever played the unbeatable game once told me that all he asked in a bull market — or a bear market, for that matter — was to be the last fool but one.
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The challenge is whether you can invest in things that won’t be too bad on the day when the market turns.
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There are always reasons why the market is down, and those reasons dominate investor’s consciousness; but current fears are reflected in current prices.
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It is an old cliché that they don’t ring a bell at the tops and bottoms of markets, but it is not entirely true. Occasionally someone climbs up in the belfry and does just that, as a public service, but knowing that few are likely to heed the bell.
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An old saying is that in a bull market, your time horizons grow longer and longer. In a bear market, they grow shorter and shorter.
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Most investors underestimate the stress of a high-risk portfolio on the way down.
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One of the important factors behind the fluctuation between bull and bear markets, between booms and crashes and bubbles, is that investor memory has to fail us – and fail universally – in order for the extremes to be reached.
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There is a considerable tendency for common stock investors to do the greater part of their buying, both of “good” and “bad” securities, at high levels of the market. They are equally inclined to do the greater part of their selling at low levels of the market, a procedure which is not conducive to successful results.
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There’s an old market saying about stocks to the effect that they all go down together.
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There will be bear markets about twice every 10 years and recessions about twice every 10 or 12 years but nobody has been able to predict them reliably. So the best thing to do is to buy when shares are thoroughly depressed and that means when other people are selling.
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It would be silly to expect every bear market to turn into the Great Depression. It would be equally wrong to expect that a fall from overvalued, to more fairly valued, couldn’t badly overshoot on the downside.
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It is only in a bear market that the value investing discipline becomes especially important because value investing, virtually alone among strategies, gives you exposure to the upside with limited downside risk.
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The novice soon learns that stocks are likely to maintain an upward or downward trend for long periods of time with minor interruptions of the major trend.
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Missing the bottom on the way up won’t cost you anything. It’s missing the top on the way down that’s always expensive.
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You need to know the market’s going to go down sometimes. If you’re not ready for that, you shouldn’t own stocks. And it’s good when it happens.
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I’ve found that when the market’s going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy.
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The man in the street associates the acquisition of wealth with rising markets; failures, ruin, depression, panics with falling markets.
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The malady of commercial crisis is not, in essence, a matter of the purse but of the mind.
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If you can invest your money under fair conditions, in fact under attractive specific conditions, I think one certainly should do so even if the market should go down further and even if the securities you buy may also go down after you buy them.
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Those with enterprise haven’t the money, and those with money haven’t the enterprise, to buy stocks when they are cheap.
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The Street, unfortunately, is fairly well inured to the bursting of bubbles.
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The only thing you can be sure of is that there are times when large numbers of stocks are priced too high and other times when they’re priced too low.
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Experience in former markets indicates that just as they are too high in bull markets, they get too low in bear markets.
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It is usually a much simpler matter to forecast a bull market than to call the turn at its end.
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Bull markets and bear markets last long enough so that the average trader is likely to forget by the time the climax is approaching that any sort of movement is possible.
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You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready. You won’t do well in the markets. If you go to Minnesota in January, you should know it’s gonna be cold. You don’t panic when the thermometer falls below zero.
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I’ve been fully invested at the start of all the major declines and I will be fully invested in the next one. I am not a market predictor, that’s for darn sure.
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We would rather underperform in a huge bull market than get clobbered in a really bad bear market.
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If you’re going to be in this game for the long pull, which is the way to do it, you better be able to handle a 50% decline without fussing too much about it.
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