Investors in distressed property are motivated primarily by the expectation that the equity value of a real estate asset acquired at less than its original cost-to-construct will in time increase to a point that justifies its original indebtedness.
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Developers are creating a product that meets the developer’s test of profitability, not necessarily the marketplace’s test of economic viability. If the developer believes the creation and presale of the product assure him a profit, then the discipline of the marketplace disappears and oversupply follows.
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I look at situations and act when I think the problems are temporary. I believed if you could buy assets with sufficient ability to carry them then over time you could not lose.
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Real estate investment decisions do not lend themselves to macroeconomic issues. Real estate is a local market, by definition. lt is not possible to focus on national trends; one must focus on local issues and characteristics.
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Reliance on historical perspectives must be tempered by individual market analysis.
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Do I think 100-story buildings were ever economical? No. They were just phallic symbols in an environment where we lived in la-la land and thought we were never vulnerable.
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Internal rates of return and other mathematical formulas for real estate projections attempt to legitimize the presumption of predictable results.
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Rather than focus on numerical indexes in investment decisions, the investor should focus on unique characteristics that protect the investment from competition. Thus bar to access is a critical element in the evaluation.
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The most significant factor influencing real estate’s future value is competition. One could argue that the higher the occupancy and the rates, the more likely this level of performance will not continue.
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The most intelligent investment may perform poorly if it is surrounded by too much supply.
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If you’re going to invest in stocks for the long term, or real estate, of course, there are going to be periods when there’s a lot of agony and other periods when there’s a boom. I think you just have to learn to live through them.
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