Fashions play their part in the stock market as in other affairs of life.
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The stock market itself seems to be mainly driven by fashions and fads. However, when you look at individual stocks, it’s a different story, because individual stocks are much more diverse, and some of them can be predicted to perform well over the long run.
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People say the market is overvalued, but if you are only looking at certain names, you will always find times when those names are undervalued. That’s what we’re waiting for.
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In point of fact, all sorts of considerations enter into the market valuation which are in no way relevant to the prospective yield.
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Day-to-day fluctuations in the profits of existing investments, which are obviously of an ephemeral and non-significant character, tend to have an altogether excessive, and even an absurd, influence on the market.
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In all my 60 years in the stock market, I never found anyone whose opinion of what the stock market would do next week or next month was worth heeding.
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The successful purchase of growth stocks requires two rather obvious conditions: First, that their prospect of growth be realized; and, second, that the market has not already pretty well discounted these growth prospects.
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The problem is not whether price changes should be disregarded — because clearly they should not be — but rather in what way can the investor and the security analyst deal intelligently with the price changes which take place.
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The trouble with market forecasting is not that it is done by unintelligent and unskillful people. Quite to the contrary, the trouble is that it is done by so many really expert people that their efforts constantly neutralize each other, and end up almost exactly in zero.
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The strange revolutions wrought by time are nowhere so evident as in the securities market, where an accurate comparison of the present with the past is afforded by the price record over a period of years.
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Booms start with some tie-in to reality, some reason which justifies the increase in asset values, and then — and this is the critical feature of speculative mood — the market loses touch with reality.
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If we really knew what the future will bring that is all we would have to know; but since stock market people can only guess the future and since they have the embarrassing habit of guessing wrongly, it seems best not to lay too much stress upon forecasts.
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Participation in the stock market is not limited to the experienced, the conservative, nor even the intelligent. It is a game at which any number of people may play. And as the market level rises, the quantity of players grows rapidly and their quality diminishes somewhat in proportion.
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The only significance of stock market gyrations to the true investor is that they give him an opportunity to buy good common stocks when they are cheap — or at least reasonably priced — and at times offer him an invitation to sell out at temptingly high levels.
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In the halcyon days of prosperity, the investor is satisfied with increased dividends and a rising market, and cares very little about dry statistics.
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The idea of measuring investment risks by price fluctuations is repugnant to me, for the very reason that it confuses what the stock market says with what actually happens to the owners’ stake in the business.
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To establish the right price for a stock the market must have adequate information, but it by no means follows that if the market has this information it will thereupon establish the right price.
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I deny emphatically that because the market has all the information it needs to establish a correct price the prices it actually registers are in fact correct.
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People without experience or superior ability may make a lot of money fast in the stock market, but they cannot keep what they make, and most of them will end up as net losers.
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Investors feelings and reactions regarding inflation are probably more the result of the stock market action that they have recently experienced than the cause of it.
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It is interesting to see how unpopular companies can become, merely because their immediate prospects are clouded in the speculative mind.
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The obvious fact about security prices to any student of the market is that they fluctuate.
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The official who keeps one eye on his business and one on the stock market is not likely long to be numbered among the leaders.
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There is evidence that the stock market is more efficient in processing information about what other investors are doing than it is in processing fundamental information about the underlying assets, which is why stock prices so often turn out with hindsight to have been crazy rather than rational.
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People spend an unbelievable amount of mental energy trying to pick what the market’s going to do, what time of the year to buy it. It’s just not worth it.
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I have lost a lot of money in some bad savings and loans. I have lost money in bad banks. And I have lost money in electronics companies. It is very easy to lose money in the stock market.
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Short sellers are the market’s police officers. If short selling were to go away, the market would levitate even more than it currently does.
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People who have made money in the stock market usually bought companies that have done well over time.
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Even in good markets we have declines and trying to predict its direction over the near term is an exercise in futility.
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It would be very useful to know what the market is going to do. But unfortunately, of all the market corrections that have ever come, no one has been able to predict them.
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The problem with the markets is that they are just like people, and individual investors can easily get confused.
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I would like to see more volatility in the markets. Small shocks remind us that a bigger shock might occur. And, we protect ourselves to some extent.
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The market’s very emotional but over time, doing something logical and systematic does work. The market eventually gets it right.
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The market doesn’t know everything, but it doesn’t know nothing, and knowledge is cumulative. The market knows stuff now that it didn’t know forty years ago, so it’s harder to outperform.
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Mathematics is ordinarily considered as producing precise and dependable results; but in the stock market the more elaborate and abstruse the mathematics the more uncertain and speculative are the conclusions we draw therefrom.
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We know from experience that eventually the market catches up with value. It realizes it in one way or another.
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If you’re going to be in this game for the long pull, which is the way to do it, you better be able to handle a 50% decline without fussing too much about it.
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There are inefficiencies in the market, but they’re not easy to demonstrate, and I think that needs to be done before one shifts money in that direction.
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The mistake most people make is answering the door just because Mr. Market knocks. You don’t have to let him in.
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If you go to the stock market because you want excitement, then sooner or later you will lose.
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Be skeptical of the popular reasoning behind any spectacular move in the stock market — but don’t be too sure this reasoning is wrong.
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The stock market registers the judgments of multitudes of buyers and sellers about the many factors which affect business — what business is like today; what it will be like in the future.
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The impression has built up that the stock market is the cause of booms and busts. Actually, it is the thermometer — not the fever.
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No one, not even the most experienced trader, economist or businessman can predict with certainty the course of the stock market.
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Experience shows that when really cheap issues are scarce the general market is high; but we do not present this as an infallible principle.
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The stock market has a 100% record, in the last 50 years, of predicting upturns in the economy. It’s never been wrong. It’s less than 50-50 on a downturn.
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My experience leads me to predict that the action of the market will govern the investor’s choice as to probable future growth rates, rather than vice-versa.
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The single most important thing to me in the stock market for anyone is to know what you own.
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