There will be bear markets about twice every 10 years and recessions about twice every 10 or 12 years but nobody has been able to predict them reliably. So the best thing to do is to buy when shares are thoroughly depressed and that means when other people are selling.
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People are very careful with their money. When they buy a refrigerator, they do some work. When they buy an apartment or rent an apartment, they’re careful. For some reason, when it comes to stocks, they just go coo-coo. They don’t do any work at all.
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You only need one or two good stocks a decade. You don’t need a lot of action.
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One of the things I have learned over the years is how important management is in building or subtracting from value.
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Most people on Wall Street don’t have principles to begin with. And if they have them, they don’t stick to them.
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Even the world’s greatest business is not a good investment if the price is too high.
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Attempting to guess short-term swings in individual stocks, the stock market or the economy is not likely to produce consistently good results. Short-term developments are too unpredictable.
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An investor is not likely to obtain superior results by buying a broad cross-section of the market. The more diversification, the more performance is likely to be average, at best.
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One lesson I have learned is to make fewer decisions. Sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing. The hardest thing to do is to sit with cash. It is very boring.
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We do not have any hard and fast rules on selling. We do not sell that well.
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We are sort of the polar opposites of a lot of investors. We do a lot of thinking and not a lot of acting. A lot of investors do a lot of acting, and not a lot of thinking.
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The more you trade, the harder it is to add value because you’re absorbing a lot of transaction costs, not to mention taxes.
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You can only know so many companies. If you’re managing 50 or 100 positions, the chances that you can add value are much, much lower.
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The more decisions you make, the higher the chances are that you will make a poor decision.
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If I’ve made one mistake in the course of managing investments it was selling really good companies too soon. Because generally, if you’ve made good investments, they will last for a long time.
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Large losses are forever – in investing, in teenage driving, and in fidelity. If you avoid large losses with a strong defense, the winnings will have every opportunity to take care of themselves. And large losses are almost always caused by trying to get too much by taking too much risk.
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Wall Street is pure economics and when profit opportunities look good, debt leverage makes them look better.
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Tradition, sentiment, vague generalizations, unsubstantiated rumors, can never be made the basis of sound investment or intelligent speculation. Now and then large profits are realized on no better foundation — merely proving that sometimes luck laughs at logic.
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The propensity to gamble is always increased by a large prize versus a small entry fee, no matter how poor the true odds may be.
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I’m looking for somebody that’s got a screw loose and they define winning not by being as rich as they can be individually, but by producing great investment returns.
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What we do know is that speculative episodes never come gently to an end. The wise, though for most the improbable, course is to assume the worst.
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We use the term risk all too casually, and the term uncertainty all too rarely.
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We deceive ourselves when we believe that past stock market return patterns provide the bounds by which we can predict the future.
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