The whole reason that our capitalist system works the way it does is because there are cycles, and the cycles self-correct.
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People who chase growth, who chase highfliers, inevitably lose because they paid a premium price. They lose to the people who have more patience and more discipline.
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It turns out that value investing is something that is in your blood. There are people who just don’t have the patience and discipline to do it, and there are people who do. So it leads me to think it’s genetic.
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I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two since I don’t have the faintest idea.
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You will be right, over the course of many transactions, if your hypotheses are correct, your facts are correct, and your reasoning is correct.
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One of the illusions that people on Wall Street have is that they can have perfect information on a stock.
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I think it would be an interesting change for integrity if managers of funds were required to have more of their own money in them.
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One of the nice things about investing is there are many different disciplines that work. You should find one that you’re comfortable with.
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Volatility is not risk. And historic volatility does not necessarily project future volatility.
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My experience is that when people want to give something away at a ridiculous price because they have to, not because they want to, that’s a good time to buy.
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The way I would think about risk aversion is most people would not want to toss a coin for their entire net worth.
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If discounting terrific things are already in the stock, I don’t want to own it.
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I always thought if you looked at ten companies, you’d find one that’s interesting, if you’d look at 20, you’d find two, or if you look at hundred you’ll find ten. The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game.
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Managers do not create large alphas by being conventional. They do so by taking the risk of being wrong and alone.
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Value investing is, at its core, the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator.
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It would be silly to expect every bear market to turn into the Great Depression. It would be equally wrong to expect that a fall from overvalued, to more fairly valued, couldn’t badly overshoot on the downside.
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Investors should always keep in mind that the most important metric is not the returns achieved but the returns weighed against the risks incurred.
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Market inefficiencies, like tax selling and window dressing, also create mindless selling, as can the deletion of a stock from an index. These causes of mispricing are deep-rooted in human behavior and market structure, unlikely to be extinguished anytime soon.
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It is crucial to have a strategy in place before problems hit, precisely because no one can accurately predict the future direction of the stock market or economy.
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The best investors do not target return; they focus first on risk, and only then decide whether the projected return justifies taking each particular risk.
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