People who have had success in other parts of their lives have difficulty accepting how much failure there is in the stock market.
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In investing, where doing nothing often prevents blunders, a certain style of laziness is adaptive, but mental laziness isn’t, and not thinking independently is absolutely toxic.
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Call it humility, call it honesty with yourself, but failing to admit to investment mistakes means failing investing.
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The best investors I’ve seen all have an above-average ability to change their mind.
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I don’t think it’s productive to wallow in regret. But if you’ve lost money in a stock and you don’t learn anything, that’s wasted money. Figure out what it is that you did wrong and don’t do it again.
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Stoic detachment combined with emotional awareness is the perfect combination for stocks. Feel the fear, but let reason decide.
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Sadly, on Wall Street, rewards for acting with self-interest and to disadvantage public shareholders often prove to be too tempting.
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The generally accepted theory is that financial markets tend towards equilibrium, and on the whole, discount the future correctly. I operate using a different theory, according to which financial markets cannot possibly discount the future correctly because they do not merely discount the future; they help to shape it.
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Financial markets are inherently unstable; stability can be maintained only if it is made an objective of public policy. Moreover, instability is cumulative.
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We start with the assumption that the stock market is always wrong, so that if you copy everybody else on Wall Street you’re doomed to do poorly.
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I start with the assumption that the market is always wrong and that there is a divergence between the way people look at a situation and what the situation is.
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In the stock market one quickly learns how important it is to act swiftly.
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There is a tendency to look to the past and say, these things have done well and therefore that’s the way you should invest — as opposed to saying where are the greatest investment opportunities going forward.
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Our view is that reasoning from the macro to the micro tends to be very dangerous.
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One of the markers, in my opinion, of a high future return is where the worst rate of return has been during the preceding five or six years.
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The investor is bombarded with staggering amounts of information, staggering amounts of stimuli that are designed to get the investor to buy and sell and trade, to do exactly the wrong thing, to create excessive profits for these intermediaries that aren’t acting in the investor’s best interests.
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Our approach can be summarized with the phrase “lowest average cost wins.”
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Stocks tend to bottom when the earnings bottom, or when the fundamentals bottom.
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It’s much more stressful to me when the market’s soaring and everybody’s excited, and everybody’s talking about how much money they’re making.
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Regardless of yield, when investments are absent of value, cash is always a better option than permanently losing money.
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We believe that if a market is so overvalued that you can only find a few stocks to buy, you are probably better off not buying anything.
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The people who tell you the world will end are the ones who die off while the world keeps going.
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So many investors today focus on earnings, but I focus on assets and don’t try to predict next months’ earnings, which is a much more difficult approach to investing.
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We’re bottom-up investors. We always have to operate on negative macro assumptions.
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