Probably the largest aggregate losses are suffered by people who invest overenthusiastically in a basically sound company.
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The typical experience of the speculator is one of temporary profit and ultimate loss.
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No prediction — whether of a repetition of past patterns or of a complete break with past patterns — can be proved in advance to be right.
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All my experience goes to show that most investment advisers take their opinions and measures of stock values from stock prices. In the stock market, value standards do not determine prices; prices determine value standards.
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People without experience or superior ability may make a lot of money fast in the stock market, but they cannot keep what they make, and most of them will end up as net losers.
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A large advance in the stock market is basically a sign for caution and not a reason for confidence.
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Investors feelings and reactions regarding inflation are probably more the result of the stock market action that they have recently experienced than the cause of it.
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The investor must recognize that there are uncertain, and hence, speculative elements inherent in any policy he follows.
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In 44 years of Wall Street experience and study, I have never seen dependable calculations made about common stock values, or related investment policies, that went beyond simple arithmetic or the most elementary algebra.
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The higher the quality of a company the more inescapable is the speculative component in its price, and the more subject it is to wide price variations.
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Most people sell stocks at low prices not because they have to but because they are scared.
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Let us define the speculator as one who seeks to profit from market movements, without primary regard to intrinsic value; the prudent stock investor as one who (a) buys only at prices amply supported by underlying value, and (b) who determinedly reduces his stock holdings when the market enters the speculative phase of a sustained advance.
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The future, as I see it, is something to be protected against rather than to exploit.
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It is interesting to see how unpopular companies can become, merely because their immediate prospects are clouded in the speculative mind.
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Experience in former markets indicates that just as they are too high in bull markets, they get too low in bear markets.
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These chaps start out reading Graham and Dodd and I’m sure most of them are quite impressed by it in business school. I take some malicious pleasure in saying it’s the book on finance that’s been read by more people and disregarded by more people than any other that I know of.
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The obvious fact about security prices to any student of the market is that they fluctuate.
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The official who keeps one eye on his business and one on the stock market is not likely long to be numbered among the leaders.
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It is usually a much simpler matter to forecast a bull market than to call the turn at its end.
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Bull markets and bear markets last long enough so that the average trader is likely to forget by the time the climax is approaching that any sort of movement is possible.
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It takes a great deal of nerve to cling to a short position in a stock in the face of an advancing market even though the stock may clearly be overvalued.
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To consider stocks by groups rather than by individual companies is further to ignore the vital factor of management.
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You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready. You won’t do well in the markets. If you go to Minnesota in January, you should know it’s gonna be cold. You don’t panic when the thermometer falls below zero.
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