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  • Ben Graham: The Other Advantage of Diversification

    June 17, 2020

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    Jon

    Most people understand the idea of not putting all your eggs in one basket. Diversification reduces portfolio risk by spreading your money across a number of stocks.

    In 1952, Ben Graham wrote about another benefit of diversification that doesn’t get talked about as much:

    In this connection I want to throw out a broad and challenging idea — that from a scientific standpoint common stocks as a whole may be regarded as an essentially undervalued security form. This point grows out of the basic difference between individual risk and overall or group risk. People insist on a substantially higher dividend return and a still larger excess in earnings yield for common stocks than for bonds, because the risk of loss in the average single common stock issue is undoubtedly greater than in the average single bond. But the comparison has not been true historically of a diversified group of common stocks, since common stocks as a whole have had a well-defined upward bias or long-term upward movement. This in turn is readily explicable in terms of the country’s growth, plus the steady reinvestment of undistributed profits, plus the strong net inflationary trend since the turn of the century.

    Continue Reading…


  • The Interpretation of Financial Statements by Benjamin Graham

    June 10, 2020

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    The Interpretation of Financial StatementsBuy the Book: Print

    Published in 1937, Ben Graham covers the basics of accounting and financial statements. It’s a condensed guide on reading the balance sheet and income statement, explaining common metrics, and tips on how to determine the soundness of a company.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


  • Cartoons of the 1929 Crash

    June 5, 2020

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    Jon

    Newspapers have limited real estate. It should be no surprise that the stock market failed to make the front page every day of 1929. It was competing against news about prohibition, bootleggers, tariffs, and politics for the top spot.

    The market really only dominated the headlines for about two weeks out of the year. The big week was at the end of October. The rest was sporadically spread out during the year.

    But in those two weeks, editorial cartoonists wonderfully captured the speculative phenomenon of the market bubble and crash. The gambling nature, the easy money mentality, mistiming the top, the promises never to do it again…until next time, they captured it all.

    After digging through the headlines of 1929, the cartoons were too obvious to be ignored, so I grabbed some to share. Take a look: Continue Reading…


  • How to Take a Chance by Darrell Huff

    June 3, 2020

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    How to Take a ChanceBuy the Book: Print

    Darrell Huff offers an introduction to the theory of probability that you can find in all aspects of life. He weaves in bits of humor and literature to explain the different concepts with real-life examples of coin tosses, card games, roulette, and dice that should help you avoid expensive mistakes.

    The Notes

    Continue Reading…


  • Timeless Lessons from Bubbles

    May 29, 2020

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    Jon

    Every market bubble reveals important lessons after it bursts. Some of those lessons are one-off, tied to a specific bubble. The important lessons emerge each time prices reach euphoric heights.

    John Kenneth Galbraith highlighted two such lessons from the 1920s bubble during a Congressional Hearing in 1979. His first is discussed often (so I’ll keep it short). His second can be found outside bubblier times too.

    A sound idea carried too far

    Prices first went up because of good earnings. Then they took leave of reality. The market was taken over by people for whom the only important fact was that prices were going up. Their buying then put up the prices but with the certainty that when the supply of such speculators — and gulls — ran out, as eventually it would, the upward movement would come to an end and prices would collapse in the rush to realize and get out. This, to repeat, is the classic speculative sequence.

    If the only reason for buying a stock is because the price went up…buyer beware. Continue Reading…


  • The Uncomfortable Truth

    May 22, 2020

    ·

    Jon

    What’s the biggest determinant of investing success? Smarts, information, strategy, or skill are all worthy possibilities.

    But one stands out above all the others:

    The truly successful stock market investors of history have been no more intelligent than most less successful investors. In most instances — they have had no better sources of information than other investors. The qualities they have had in common have rather been qualities of temperament, which is why no one has ever found out how to get rich by taking courses or reading a book or reading articles (including this one). But those temperamental qualities are crucial and relate to the points I have been trying to make here: the road to success in investing is paved with independence of spirit, decisiveness, and the courage of one’s convictions. — Peter Bernstein

    The market naturally triggers emotional responses that lead to mistakes. Those best equipped to handle those triggers are more likely to succeed.

    That shouldn’t come as a surprise. Most things in life worth achieving require mental toughness to get through the obstacles that are certain to arise. And investing is full of obstacles. Continue Reading…


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