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  • Happy Hour: Cause or Effect

    February 20, 2015

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    Jon

    Robert Shiller announced his CAPE ratio on twitter last week. I mentioned it in a post earlier this week. I won’t post his quote again, so jump over to check it out. In it, he compares today’s CAPE level with the previous high of 2007.

    It doesn’t take much to over think it, put two and two together, and see another crash as a foregone conclusion. The reference of ’07 makes that connection. Though, to be fair, Shiller is simply stating a fact, not making a prediction. But my first thought was – what role did the high CAPE in ’07 play in the resulting crisis? Continue Reading…


  • Putting the CAPE Ratio Into Context

    February 18, 2015

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    Jon

    Ben Graham QuoteThe past few years has seen a growing discussion around how to best value the market. More recently, the argument turned toward just how overvalued is the market and what does it mean? I thought I’d try to answer those two questions.

    Several market valuation tools have become more common since the crisis. I use the term loosely because none of the valuation tools are 100% accurate and some are terribly inaccurate. In reality, people want a market timing tool. Keep that in mind while reading further.

    One of the more popular tools is the CAPE ratio (Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio) or Shiller PE named after it’s creator, Robert Shiller. Shiller is a Yale professor who realized the market is hardly efficient, wanted a way to measure that inefficiency, and wrote a book about it appropriately named Irrational Exuberance. Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Excuses In Investing

    February 13, 2015

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    Jon

    I spent most of my formative years playing sports – mainly basketball. My own biased belief is athletes have a unique view toward winning and losing because they deal with it earlier in life and more often than most people. It may or may not be true. I have no idea. It’s just my biased experience from sitting in the stands after spending most of my youth on the court.

    The early lessons from sports are hard work and team work pay off. As the kids move up the ranks, they learn how to handle winning, losing, and fixing mistakes. Continue Reading…


  • How Well Do You Know Your Index Funds?

    February 11, 2015

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    Jon

    Rip Van Winkle QuoteThe quotes of many great investors are often misused for a number of reasons. Peter Lynch is one of them. His most misused, and arguable misunderstood, quote is – Invest in what you know. Those five words are taken out of context all the time.

    Lynch meant it as a starting point for the do it yourself investor. Too many people take it literally and miss out on Lynch’s real lesson – Know what you own.

    To that end, I want to ask you two simple questions.

    A Quick Test

    Do you consider Greece to be a developed country? Does your international index fund agree? Continue Reading…


  • Happy Hour: Active Arguments

    February 6, 2015

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    Jon

    I’m busy moving servers this week so I dug into my Evernote archives for help. You can find a passive versus active investing article on every single investing site ever. If you don’t, then they probably forgot, or have one on standby for situations just like mine. Anyways, the analogy I use isn’t perfect but it gets my point across. Enjoy.

    First, I’ll make this perfectly clear. I’ve never been a fan of arguing passive vs active. It’s a joke and a terrible waste of time on the level of trying to convince a die-hard Republican to vote Democrat. Pushing against a brick wall isn’t fun. Continue Reading…


  • The Easy Tax Preparation Checklist

    February 4, 2015

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    Jon

    Tax Preparation Checklist

    Let’s face it, tax season is a procrastinator’s paradise. Unless you’re getting a refund. Then it’s the biggest hurry up and wait event as you try to file your return early. In either case, being organized beforehand will make the process much smoother. That’s where a tax preparation checklist comes in handy.

    There’s nothing more I hate than having to waste several hours digging up that one misplaced tax form. It’s one reason I use TurboTax because it keeps track of all my tax records year after year so I don’t miss anything.

    If you do your own taxes like me, this checklist has all the tax forms, receipts, and records you might need to file your taxes this year. Then, when you finally sit down to do your taxes, you’ll have everything in front of you, so you save time and money on your taxes every year.

    Continue Reading…


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