Almost any asset can be risky or safe, depending on how other investors treat it.
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I believe the market accurately reflects not the truth, which is what the efficient market hypothesis says, but it accurately and efficiently reflects everybody’s opinion as to what’s true.
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You have to buy an asset at a price that is attractive and reasonable for its value.
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If the discernment of value could be reduced to an algorithm and taught, then everybody would be Warren Buffett.
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I’ve heard it said that an economist is a portfolio manager who never marks to market.
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I’ve listened to a lot of economic briefings, and I’ve had a lot of visits from economists, and I’ve never encountered one who was right consistently.
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On average, the average large-stock fund manager produces average returns before fees and below-average returns after fees. So compared with after-fee returns, an index fund is superior.
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If you think Treasuries have no risk and high yield bonds have risk, the yield spread is there to compensate for the bearing of that incremental risk. The question is whether it is adequate.
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When things go badly, people become cautious. Then their caution causes things to go well, and when things go well, they become incautious. I think that’s a forever cycle.
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I spend a great deal of my personal time trying to figure out one thing, which is, at a given point in time, how should you balance aggressiveness and defensiveness in your portfolio.
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Being “right” doesn’t lead to superior performance if the consensus forecast is also right.
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Most of us have roughly the same ability to predict the future. The trouble is, being right as often as the average forecaster won’t produce superior results.
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Extreme predictions are rarely right, but they’re the ones that make you big money.
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Potentially profitable, nonconsensus forecasts are very hard to believe in and act on for the simple reason that they are so far from conventional wisdom.
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Investment survival has to be achieved in the short run, not on average in the long run.
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I think that the business about volatility being risk is a con job which was perpetrated primarily because volatility is machinable.
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The reason for dwelling on the virtue of simple investment approaches is that complicated ones, which can’t be explained simply, may be disguising a more basic defect. They may not make any sense.
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Expertise is great, but it has a bad side effect. It tends to create an inability to accept new ideas.
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Crooks, crazies, egomaniacs, people full of resentment, people full of self-pity, people who feel like victims, there’s a lot of things that aren’t going to work for you. Figure out what they are and then avoid them like the plague.
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A friend of mine says a good day when you’re old is when you wake up in the morning and nothing new hurts.
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I think it’s part of a life lived right that you learn how to make some lemonade out of your lemons.
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Most financial principles and theories have a degree of good sense to them. It may be a large degree, but it never comes close to being absolute.
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People do not care for the idea that any important activity which affects them is as beyond their control as a pair of dancing dice.
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