It becomes more and more evident that stock prices are not alone determined by high or low credit, earnings or carloadings. There is another mighty factor which cannot be charted along with the various business indices. It is how high or how low are the hearts of men and women during the given period.
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If you can invest your money under fair conditions, in fact under attractive specific conditions, I think one certainly should do so even if the market should go down further and even if the securities you buy may also go down after you buy them.
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The successful purchase of growth stocks requires two rather obvious conditions: First, that their prospect of growth be realized; and, second, that the market has not already pretty well discounted these growth prospects.
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The trouble with stockholders, in my humble opinion, is that not enough of them are disgruntled.
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Speculation, I imagine, is a theme almost as popular as love; but in both cases most of the comments made are rather trite and not particularly helpful.
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Speculative operations are all concerned with changes in price. In some cases the emphasis is on price changes alone, and in other cases the emphasis is on changes in value which are expected to give rise to changes in price.
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The problem is not whether price changes should be disregarded — because clearly they should not be — but rather in what way can the investor and the security analyst deal intelligently with the price changes which take place.
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If we assume that a very considerable amount of Wall Street activity must inevitably have elements of chance in it, then the sound idea would be to measure these chances as accurately as you can, and play the game in the direction of having the odds on your side.
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The trouble with market forecasting is not that it is done by unintelligent and unskillful people. Quite to the contrary, the trouble is that it is done by so many really expert people that their efforts constantly neutralize each other, and end up almost exactly in zero.
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Those with enterprise haven’t the money, and those with money haven’t the enterprise, to buy stocks when they are cheap.
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Wall Street has a beautiful collection of very ancient and often very incorrect traditions.
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The strange revolutions wrought by time are nowhere so evident as in the securities market, where an accurate comparison of the present with the past is afforded by the price record over a period of years.
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Economist picture a thousand buyers and sellers congregating in the market place to match their keen wits and finally evolve the correct price for each commodity. In the securities market particularly, the word of the ticker is accepted as law, so that one often thinks of prices as determining values, instead of vice-versa.
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I think that we only get estimates of the distributions and that we can only be somewhat sure of the estimates. That makes the problems in the financial world much more difficult, I think, because you have these uncertainties in the distributions.
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I believe in maximum flexibility, so I reserve the right to change my position on any subject when the external environment relating to any topic changes too.
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Booms start with some tie-in to reality, some reason which justifies the increase in asset values, and then — and this is the critical feature of speculative mood — the market loses touch with reality.
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No method guarantees you’re not going to lose your shirt. I’ve done that many times. I’ve had stocks go from $11 to seven cents.
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If we really knew what the future will bring that is all we would have to know; but since stock market people can only guess the future and since they have the embarrassing habit of guessing wrongly, it seems best not to lay too much stress upon forecasts.
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Let us define the speculator as one who seeks to profit from market movements, without primary regard to intrinsic values; the “prudent stock investor” as one who (a) buys only at prices amply supported by underlying value, and (b) who determinedly reduces his stock holdings when the market enters the speculative phase of a sustained advance.
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Participation in the stock market is not limited to the experienced, the conservative, nor even the intelligent. It is a game at which any number of people may play. And as the market level rises, the quantity of players grows rapidly and their quality diminishes somewhat in proportion.
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The only significance of stock market gyrations to the true investor is that they give him an opportunity to buy good common stocks when they are cheap — or at least reasonably priced — and at times offer him an invitation to sell out at temptingly high levels.
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A common stock investor is one who regards his common stock holdings as a proprietary interest in various businesses, not as a series of quotations in a newspaper.
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