Expectations tend to seep into investment decisions. Not always in a good way.
Take the return expectations from a recent study by Schroders:

15.38% seems awfully specific. Maybe the U.S. stock market hits that mark over the next five years, but it’s eerily similar to returns over the last five years. From 2o16 to 2020, the S&P 500 earned an annual 15.22% total return. So recency bias may play a role. And with the S&P 500’s historical return closer to 10%, I think it’s safe to say those expectations are over-optimistic.
A safer assumption for future returns would be achieved with a formula John Bogle devised. Bogle’s simple formula looks like this: Continue Reading…

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